Key Takeaways
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes describes current crypto conditions as a “no-trade zone” amid AI workforce displacement and Middle East conflict
- Three war-related scenarios could drive Bitcoin toward $80,000–$90,000, according to Hayes
- Hayes won’t add Bitcoin positions until the Federal Reserve commits to monetary expansion
- Current portfolio additions limited to physical gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
- Hayes forecasts Hyperliquid capturing significant market share from prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and now serves as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, revealed he has conducted minimal trading activity throughout 2025’s opening quarter. In an April 15 blog post, the prominent investor characterized present-day crypto markets as inhabiting a “no-trade zone.”
Hayes identifies two primary catalysts driving his defensive positioning: the accelerating displacement of knowledge workers by artificial intelligence systems, and escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The Maelstrom executive warns that AI-driven job elimination could unleash a cascade of consumer credit failures across the financial system. He draws parallels to the devastation caused by the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown.
According to Hayes, corporate workforce reductions are already underway. He cited a specific instance involving a cryptocurrency gaming company executive who leveraged AI tools to compress a half-year development timeline into just four days—immediately followed by eliminating half the workforce.
With US median unemployment compensation hovering around $28,000 annually while knowledge workers typically earn between $85,000 and $90,000, Hayes anticipates this income chasm will generate widespread banking sector loan failures.
Hayes Maps Out Three Bitcoin Price Pathways
The former BitMEX chief outlines three distinct scenarios connected to ongoing geopolitical hostilities.
Under the first pathway, military conflict concludes and normalcy resumes. However, AI-driven deflationary pressures persist, ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to implement monetary expansion to avert banking system collapse.
The second scenario envisions Iran maintaining strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz while imposing passage fees denominated in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. Countries would liquidate US dollar-denominated holdings to satisfy these tolls, creating downward pressure on treasuries, equities, and Bitcoin.
In the third possibility, American military forces eliminate Iran’s capacity to control the critical waterway. Hayes suggests Iran would probably respond by targeting energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, compelling global central banks worldwide to activate money printing mechanisms.
Across all three frameworks, Hayes maintains that monetary expansion becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, he refuses to accumulate Bitcoin positions until Federal Reserve action materializes. While acknowledging Bitcoin could surge toward $80,000–$90,000, he argues current risk-reward dynamics remain unfavorable.
Gold and HYPE Token Represent Hayes’ Only Current Bets
Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% during the previous seven days, currently changing hands above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest outperformance versus US software sector equities appears promising, though insufficient to alter his strategic outlook.
The critical indicator Hayes monitors is the MOVE Index, which measures US Treasury market volatility levels. Should this metric climb beyond 130, he anticipates some monetary expansion form will emerge.
Presently, Hayes confirms Maelstrom exclusively accumulates physical gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold trades near $4,830, registering approximately 1% daily gains. HYPE has surged 18% across the past week, currently priced at $45.31.
Hayes projects Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 protocol launch will catalyze substantial HYPE token appreciation. He forecasts the decentralized exchange platform will capture considerable market share from prediction market rivals Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE demonstrates 18% weekly gains, trading at $45.31 at publication time.
