Key Takeaways
- SpaceX aims for a June 2026 IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation, positioning it as the largest public offering ever recorded.
- Revenue expansion at SpaceX decelerated to just 18% in 2025, a sharp decline from 51% and 89% growth in previous years.
- The company recorded a $5 billion loss in 2025, primarily driven by costly AI investments following its $250 billion xAI acquisition.
- Rocket Lab completed a successful orbital deployment of eight JAXA satellites on April 22, 2026 — marking its 8th mission this year.
- Trading at a $49 billion valuation, RKLB commands a price-to-sales multiple of 74, suggesting little room for error.
While financial headlines obsess over SpaceX’s impending public debut, Rocket Lab (RKLB) continues executing missions with precision. The company’s latest achievement came on April 22, when it successfully deployed eight satellites for Japan’s aerospace agency JAXA — representing its second dedicated JAXA contract in recent months and the eighth orbital mission of 2026.
Chief Executive Peter Beck described Electron as “the preferred small launcher for national space agencies.” The mission’s payload comprised an ocean observation satellite, an educational technology demonstrator, a multispectral imaging camera prototype, and an innovative deployable antenna utilizing origami-inspired design that expands to 25 times its stowed dimensions.
The mission proceeded flawlessly. And its timing couldn’t be more strategic.
SpaceX leadership reportedly convened with investment bankers recently to orchestrate a June public offering. The company seeks a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation — a figure that would position it as the world’s eighth-most valuable enterprise, surpassing both Tesla and Meta. Unusually, retail investors may receive up to 30% of the allocation, significantly above the standard 5–10% range.
This elevated retail participation has sparked concern among market observers. Some analysts fear it could transform SpaceX shares into meme stock territory, where price action decouples from underlying business fundamentals.
SpaceX’s Revenue Deceleration Raises Questions
According to private market intelligence firm Sacra, SpaceX generated 18% revenue growth in 2025. While positive on the surface, this figure pales compared to 51% expansion in 2024 and 89% in 2023. The slowdown is pronounced and undeniable.
Complicating matters is the xAI transaction. SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture in February through a $250 billion stock deal. The AI landscape remains fiercely competitive, and the acquisition has already proven expensive. According to The Information, SpaceX posted a $5 billion loss in 2025, predominantly attributable to AI-related expenditures.
Prospective investors considering entry at a $1.75 trillion price tag are essentially betting on aggressive future expansion from an enterprise already experiencing deceleration and absorbing substantial losses.
Rocket Lab Trades at Premium Valuation Too
Rocket Lab commands a $49 billion market capitalization with a price-to-sales ratio of 74. By conventional standards, this represents aggressive pricing. At such elevated multiples, flawless execution becomes mandatory.
The company’s pivotal upcoming milestone is Neutron, a medium-lift launch vehicle engineered to challenge SpaceX’s Falcon 9 more directly. Launch operations are anticipated later in 2026. Any schedule slippage could trigger significant stock pressure.
RKLB has oscillated between $20.23 and $99.58 during the trailing 52-week period, highlighting the stock’s considerable volatility. The company operates with a gross margin of 31.66%.
Nevertheless, at $49 billion compared to $1.75 trillion, Rocket Lab presents substantially greater percentage-based appreciation potential — assuming operational performance remains strong.
The recent JAXA deployment represented Rocket Lab’s second dedicated mission for the Japanese agency within months, following the RAISE-4 launch completed in December 2025.
