Key Takeaways
- First quarter results arrive May 13, with analysts forecasting revenue between $375–389 million—a year-over-year increase of approximately 578–600%
- Shares have climbed more than 120% in 2025 and roughly 554% over 12 months, hovering near record levels around $196
- A $46 billion order backlog underpins growth expectations, featuring a $27 billion Meta partnership and $19.4 billion Microsoft contract
- The company completed a $643 million purchase of AI firm Eigen AI, marking its second major deal this quarter
- Wall Street consensus leans bullish with 8 of 10 analysts assigning Buy ratings; Goldman Sachs maintains a $205 target
Nebius approaches its first quarter financial disclosure on May 13 with shares hovering near peak valuations and market observers paying close attention. The stock currently changes hands around $196, representing a dramatic rise from below $27 twelve months prior.
Wall Street forecasts approximately $375–389 million in quarterly revenue, marking a year-over-year expansion in the 578–600% range. Profitability remains elusive for now. Consensus estimates point to a per-share loss of $0.77, widening from the $0.41 deficit recorded in the year-ago period.
While top-line figures grab attention, market participants will scrutinize a more critical question: can Nebius convert its substantial $46 billion contract pipeline into tangible operating cash generation?
This backlog rests on three cornerstone agreements. A $27 billion arrangement with Meta, finalized in March, represents the most significant piece. This commitment encompasses $12 billion in dedicated AI infrastructure over five years beginning early 2027, supplemented by a $15 billion extension option for additional capacity. A separate $19.4 billion supply pact with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic stake from Nvidia complete the framework.
Planned capital outlays for 2026 reach staggering levels—somewhere between $16 billion and $20 billion. Company leadership indicates that contractually committed funding will finance approximately 60% of these expenditures. A recently completed $4.34 billion convertible debt placement provides additional financial flexibility.
For calendar year 2026, executives project total revenue spanning $3 billion to $3.4 billion. The extended outlook calls for an annualized revenue pace reaching $7–9 billion by year-end 2026, accelerating from the $1.25 billion run rate achieved at the conclusion of 2025.
A notable milestone from the fourth quarter of 2025: adjusted EBITDA swung positive for the first time, registering $15 million against a roughly $64 million deficit in the comparable prior-year period. The AI cloud division delivered a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin.
The Eigen AI Transaction
Just two weeks ahead of the earnings release, Nebius disclosed plans to acquire Eigen AI, a compact 20-member team composed of MIT graduates, for $643 million. Transaction terms call for up to $98 million in cash alongside 3.8 million Class A ordinary shares.
Eigen brings expertise in post-training refinement for open-source language models—capabilities spanning quantization techniques, KV-cache enhancements, and specialized CUDA kernel development. The partnership has already yielded optimized implementations of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen frameworks, achieving inference speeds reaching 911 tokens per second.
This technology will integrate directly into Nebius’ Token Factory offering. The transaction represents the second acquisition within a three-month window, following February’s $275 million Tavily purchase. Both strategic moves signal a deliberate shift from pure infrastructure provision toward value-added platform services commanding superior margins.
Analyst Perspectives
Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following the Meta announcement, increasing revenue projections for 2027–2030 by 30–54% while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and a fair valuation band of $80–$170, acknowledging robust demand dynamics while highlighting execution uncertainties and financing challenges. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated with an Overweight rating paired with a $129 target. Freedom Capital Markets shifted to Hold after the stock jumped 70% from its February call.
Currently, eight out of ten sell-side analysts maintain Buy recommendations on NBIS. The mean price target stands at $174.33.
Institutional ownership remains relatively light at 22%. Millennium Management established a fresh position, UBS expanded its allocation, and Oppenheimer increased its stake by nearly 91% during the fourth quarter.
The quarterly earnings conference call commences at 8 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13.
