Key Takeaways
- Friday’s quadruple witching event will trigger the simultaneous expiration of trillions in stock and index derivatives
- Bitcoin slipped beneath the $70,000 threshold on Thursday, battling to maintain critical support zones
- Historical data reveals Bitcoin tends to show minimal movement during quadruple witching, followed by extended periods of decline
- Leveraged futures positions, rather than spot market activity, appear to be fueling the current crypto downturn
- Crypto markets also face a major $13.5 billion derivatives settlement on Deribit scheduled for March 27
Bitcoin tumbled beneath the $70,000 mark on Thursday as worldwide financial markets braced for one of the most significant quarterly derivatives settlements in conventional finance.
Quadruple witching occurs quarterly — specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This phenomenon represents the concurrent expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single-stock futures contracts.
The magnitude of this quarterly event is substantial. During March 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives reached expiration within a single trading session. That particular day witnessed the S&P 500’s highest trading volume for the entire calendar year, as reported by TradeStation.
Data for the March 2026 expiration remains unavailable at this time.
During quadruple witching sessions, institutional players must simultaneously close out, extend, or settle their positions. Market activity typically surges, and price volatility often intensifies, particularly during the closing hour of the trading day.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, indicated the phenomenon could create ripple effects across cryptocurrency markets. He stated “quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire,” noting that the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility index had already begun climbing in anticipation of the event.
Historical Bitcoin Performance During Witching Days
Examining 2025 data, Bitcoin’s price movements on actual quadruple witching days showed relatively minimal fluctuation. The more substantial declines materialized in subsequent days and weeks.
On March 21, 2025, Bitcoin experienced slight downward pressure before eventually finding a bottom around $76,000 following market reactions to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. June 20 witnessed a 1.5% decline, with BTC reaching a local bottom near $98,000 just 48 hours later.
September 19 saw Bitcoin fall over 1%, followed by a sharp plunge from $177,000 to $108,000 throughout the subsequent week. December 19 concluded approximately 3% higher at $85,000, though the broader downtrend persisted.
The trend appears consistent: subdued price action on the expiration day itself, followed by weakness extending across subsequent days or weeks.
Forces Behind the Present Downturn
Market data indicates the current Bitcoin decline stems primarily from futures market activity rather than spot market selling pressure. The Coinbase premium gap has shifted into negative territory, signaling diminished demand from U.S.-based investors.
Crypto analyst IT Tech observed that while spot market selling decreased by approximately $40 million, perpetual futures market selling reached a significantly larger $506.75 million. This data suggests leveraged traders represent the primary catalyst driving the recent decline.
Certain market participants anticipate a potential near-term bounce. Should Bitcoin successfully reclaim the $70,000 level swiftly, the subsequent target stands at $76,000. However, a breakdown below $68,300 would expose support zones at $65,000 and $62,000.
Bryan Tan of Wintermute proposed that “being flat is a strong position” under current circumstances and advised maintaining cash reserves until market direction becomes more definitive.
Beyond digital assets, the wider financial landscape is contributing additional headwinds. Oil prices have climbed toward $120 per barrel, the VIX volatility index surged above 35 last week — marking its highest reading in a year — and gold retreated below $4,600.
Looking forward, cryptocurrency markets face an additional $13.5 billion derivatives expiration scheduled for March 27 on Deribit. Market positioning suggests traders are favoring volatility-based strategies over strong directional wagers.
