Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing’s Q4 FY2025 earnings release is scheduled for after-hours trading on March 4, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus calls for a $0.03 per share loss with revenue reaching $2.33 million.
- Year-to-date, RGTI stock has declined over 21%, though it climbed 9.4% in the past week.
- IonQ’s impressive Q4 performance has boosted optimism throughout quantum computing stocks, benefiting RGTI.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) stand out as the crucial indicator for assessing future growth potential.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results following Wednesday’s market close on March 4. The timing presents an interesting backdrop — while RGTI shares have tumbled more than 21% since the year began, recent trading sessions have shown signs of recovery.
Shares climbed 9.4% during the week concluding March 1, a stark contrast to the S&P 500’s 0.4% decline and the Nasdaq’s 1% drop. This reversal caught attention, particularly since it wasn’t driven by Rigetti-specific news.
IonQ unveiled its Q4 performance on February 25, delivering a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 per share alongside revenue of $61.89 million. The Street had anticipated a $0.23 per share loss with revenue of only $40.38 million. The significant outperformance created positive momentum throughout the quantum computing space.
IonQ’s forward guidance proved equally impressive, projecting 2026 revenue between $225 million and $245 million — substantially above the $192.6 million consensus estimate. Such bullish forecasts typically create a halo effect across related industries, with Rigetti among the beneficiaries.
The spotlight now shifts to Rigetti’s performance.
Analysts project a $0.03 per share loss for Q4, representing improvement from the $0.08 per share loss recorded in the year-ago period. Revenue projections stand at $2.33 million, marking approximately 2.6% year-over-year growth. While these figures appear modest, the trajectory holds significance.
Why RPOs Command Investor Attention
For an unprofitable enterprise like Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) hold greater significance than quarterly revenue figures alone. RPOs quantify the value of signed contracts awaiting fulfillment — functioning as a forward-looking gauge of secured business.
Rigetti’s RPO figures experienced a decline during early 2025 before rebounding. Market participants will scrutinize whether this upward trend maintains momentum or loses steam.
These obligations encompass quantum processing unit contracts, cloud platform access agreements, and associated service commitments. For an organization investing heavily in research and development, this metric reveals whether clients are making substantial, enduring commitments.
Hardware Timeline Questions Persist
Another topic weighing on investor sentiment involves hardware deliverables. Rigetti pushed back the introduction of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to late Q1 FY2026.
The organization also pledged to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end 2025. Whether this target was achieved — or the current status — will likely surface during the earnings discussion.
Wall Street analysts maintain cautiously optimistic views entering the report. According to TipRanks, RGTI holds a Moderate Buy consensus, derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $38.75, suggesting potential upside exceeding 120% from current trading levels near $17.52.
The stock’s 52-week trading range spans from $6.86 to $58.15, positioning today’s valuation approximately midway through that spectrum. Considerable gains from peak levels have evaporated.
Rigetti’s Q4 earnings discussion is slated for after the closing bell on March 4, 2026.
