Key Highlights
- Bernstein anticipates prediction market trading volumes will surge to approximately $1 trillion by decade’s end, a dramatic increase from 2025’s $51 billion
- Combined transaction volume for Polymarket and Kalshi has already surpassed $60 billion in 2026 year-to-date
- Sports betting currently commands 62% of market volume, though analysts expect crypto and macroeconomic contracts to dominate future growth
- Sector revenues are forecast to explode from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by 2030
- Bernstein identifies Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as critical distribution channels, setting ambitious price targets of $130 and $330
A new research report from Wall Street investment firm Bernstein forecasts that prediction market transaction volumes will skyrocket to approximately $1 trillion by the end of this decade. This represents a staggering expansion from the $51 billion in activity documented during 2025.
The investment bank anticipates volumes will climb to roughly $240 billion in 2026 alone. These projections translate to an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate extending through 2030.
Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in transactions during the current year to date. This accelerated trajectory indicates the sector is significantly outpacing previous industry estimates.
According to Bernstein analysts under the leadership of Gautam Chhugani, two fundamental catalysts are propelling this expansion. First, increasingly transparent regulatory frameworks at the federal government level. Second, blockchain-based infrastructure enabling worldwide access and rapid deployment of new event-based contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed exclusive regulatory authority over prediction market platforms. The agency is actively developing comprehensive guidelines as the industry experiences rapid maturation.
Sports-related contracts currently represent approximately 62% of total prediction market activity. Significantly reduced effective transaction costs compared to conventional sports betting platforms have accelerated this market segment’s growth.
Beyond Sports Betting
However, [[LINK_START_1]]Bernstein[[LINK_END_1]] forecasts that sports will decline to roughly 31% of overall volume by 2030. Cryptocurrency-related instruments, alongside macroeconomic, political, and financial event contracts, are projected to emerge as the predominant market categories.
The research team anticipates substantial institutional participation will develop around economic indicators, corporate developments, and political outcome contracts. Major corporations and insurance providers may increasingly utilize these platforms to manage exposure to event-driven risks.
From a revenue perspective, the prediction market industry generated approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein’s models project this figure will climb to $2.5 billion in 2026, before reaching $10.8 billion by the decade’s conclusion.
Polymarket has transitioned away from its previous zero-commission structure. The platform now operates at an annualized revenue rate approaching $420 million.
Major Exchange Players Emerge
Robinhood (HOOD) has established a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction market offerings within just twelve months of launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The brokerage is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange technology.
Coinbase (COIN) joined the marketplace through a strategic partnership with Kalshi, providing its user base with exposure to over 1,000 different contract markets across the United States.
Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both equities. The firm’s analysts set a $130 price objective for Robinhood shares, representing approximately 81% potential appreciation from Monday’s closing price. Their $330 target for Coinbase stock suggests roughly 89% upside potential.
Research notes indicate that Robinhood’s share price has declined approximately 50% since late 2025 peaks. Analysts believe disappointing first-quarter results are already reflected in current valuations, with expectations for trading activity to rebound during the second quarter.
The investment bank projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenues will expand from approximately $150 million in 2025 to $586 million throughout 2026. The analysis specifically highlighted the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and upcoming midterm congressional elections as significant volume-driving events.
