TLDR
- A group of six freshly established Polymarket accounts collectively profited $1 million by wagering on whether the US would strike Iran before February 28, 2026.
- These accounts received funding and executed trades within a day of the actual strikes, purchasing shares mere hours before Tehran reported explosions.
- One wallet converted approximately $61,000 into more than $493,000 in returns.
- Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics company, identified these accounts as “suspected insiders,” while acknowledging definitive proof remains elusive.
- Congressman Ritchie Torres is advancing legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees from participating in prediction market contracts involving government actions.
A cluster of six recently established cryptocurrency wallets generated close to $1 million in profits on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, by wagering that America would launch strikes against Iran before February 28, 2026 — with the majority of these positions taken just hours ahead of initial explosion reports from Tehran.
Bubblemaps, a blockchain intelligence company, raised red flags about these six accounts after detecting a troubling pattern in transaction timing. The majority of these wallets were established and received their initial funding less than 24 hours before military operations commenced, and every single one purchased “yes” positions on Polymarket’s question: “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”
President Donald Trump acknowledged “massive and ongoing” military actions targeting Iran, operations the Department of War designated as “Operation Epic Fury.” These coordinated strikes involved Israeli forces.
The most profitable wallet among the group acquired 560,680 “yes” contracts at approximately 10.8 cents per share, investing around $61,000. Upon market resolution, this position yielded profits exceeding $493,000.
Another account operating under the name “Planktonbets” collected $173,907 across seven different prediction contracts. This wallet had previously placed unsuccessful wagers on earlier potential strike dates, indicating a pattern of attempting to pinpoint the precise timing.
An account identified as “Dicedicedice” executed a single trade that generated $119,964 — representing a 400% gain. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” achieved the most impressive percentage return among flagged accounts at 900%, converting $9,884 into approximately $89,000.
The remaining two wallets, “nothingeverhappens911” and one unidentified account, generated $66,436 and $45,556 respectively. Following the market resolution, all six accounts completely liquidated their holdings.
One Trader Lost Millions on the Same Day
The outcomes weren’t universally profitable. A participant identified as “anoin123” had accumulated more than $2 million by betting against military action in previous months. After the attacks materialized, this account suffered $6.5 million in losses within 24 hours, transitioning from a $2 million gain to a $4.5 million deficit, based on blockchain data from Lookonchain.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, shared with The Block: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share.”
The collection of “US strikes Iran” contracts generated more than $529 million in aggregate trading activity on Polymarket starting in December 2025. The specific February 28 contract captured approximately $90 million in volume.
A Pattern of Suspected Insider Trading
This incident marks another chapter in Polymarket’s ongoing struggles with suspected insider activity. Back in January, a newly minted wallet invested $32,000 predicting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal at 7 cents per contract, securing over $400,000 before public announcement.
Earlier in the month, Israeli authorities charged an IDF reservist alongside a civilian for allegedly exploiting classified military data to place bets on Polymarket markets connected to Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran during June 2025’s Twelve-Day War. These individuals reportedly generated combined profits surpassing $150,000.
Mere days preceding the Iran military action, individuals suspected of possessing inside information earned more than $1 million trading a Polymarket contract related to a blockchain investigation involving the cryptocurrency platform Axiom.
Congressman Ritchie Torres has put forward the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, legislation designed to prevent federal employees from trading prediction market contracts connected to governmental decisions using confidential information. Competing platform Kalshi has publicly supported this legislation, with its chief executive noting that regulated prediction markets are prohibited from hosting war-related markets.
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