Key Takeaways
- On Semiconductor reached a fresh 52-week peak of $99.64, marking a 145% gain year-over-year
- B. Riley elevated ON to Buy status, increasing the price target from $64 straight to $115
- Analyst Craig Ellis suggests the cyclical bottom is now in the rearview mirror
- First quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for May 4, with projected revenue between $1.435B and $1.535B
- MOSFET delivery timelines for Onsemi have stretched to 26 weeks according to Baird’s tracking data
On Semiconductor has experienced remarkable momentum recently. Shares reached $99.64 this week, establishing a fresh 52-week peak and extending a rally that has propelled the stock upward by 145% throughout the past twelve months.
ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON
This upward movement coincides with B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis elevating ON to Buy from Neutral, dramatically increasing the firm’s valuation target from $64 all the way to $115.
Ellis issued this recommendation in anticipation of ON’s first quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for release on May 4. His investment rationale centers on the belief that the cyclical downturn has concluded, and that the company’s strategic emphasis on power semiconductors, silicon carbide technology for electric vehicles, and industrial automation creates favorable positioning for the upcoming recovery phase.
This upgrade represents one of the most assertive bullish positions on an American semiconductor manufacturer this spring. ON was hovering around $98 during intraday trading when the analyst call was issued.
BofA Securities similarly elevated ON to Buy status recently, highlighting the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities, its Treo product portfolio, and a recently approved $6 billion stock repurchase authorization extending over three years.
ON’s CEO Hassane El-Khoury has indicated the company is observing “increasing signs of stabilization” across its primary markets, terminology that resonates with the optimistic outlook analysts are currently advancing.
Financial Performance and Earnings Outlook
Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled $5.995 billion, representing a 15% decline compared to the previous year. However, despite the revenue contraction, free cash flow reached an all-time high of $1.418 billion for the year.
First quarter 2026 projections anticipate revenue ranging from $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion, with earnings per share estimated between $0.56 and $0.66. These figures suggest sequential stabilization, which represents precisely what market participants have been anticipating.
The equity commands a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 307x, appearing elevated on the surface. However, the forward P/E of 31x captures the earnings rebound that analysts are factoring into their models.
Market capitalization hovers around $35 billion. Analyst sentiment remains divided at present: 11 Buy recommendations versus 23 Hold ratings.
InvestingPro intelligence indicates the stock trades above its Fair Value calculation, positioning it among the most richly valued companies in the current market environment.
Supply Chain Dynamics
Another supporting factor is developing beneath the surface. Baird’s research indicates that semiconductor lead times are expanding across various product categories.
MOSFET lead times currently average 25 weeks across the broader industry. Onsemi’s MOSFET products specifically are experiencing lead times extending to 26 weeks — an indication that demand is accelerating beyond supply’s ability to keep pace.
This type of supply constraint typically supports improved pricing power, which would assist margin recovery from the 38% non-GAAP gross margin low point the company experienced during the previous cycle.
Challenges persist in the equation. Barclays highlighted ON’s substantial exposure to automotive and China markets when establishing coverage at Equal-Weight.
Insider transaction patterns merit attention as well. CFO selling activity in April introduces a cautionary element to an otherwise optimistic technical setup.
Market focus now shifts to May 4, when On Semiconductor unveils its Q1 2026 financial performance. The earnings release will serve as the initial genuine validation of whether the stabilization narrative proves sustainable.
