Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 will climb 7% to reach 7,600 by year-end
- The index has surged 12% since March 30, marking its fastest gain since April 2020
- Growth stocks including Broadcom, Nvidia, and Amazon are Goldman’s top picks
- Gas prices have soared nearly 40% following escalating tensions with Iran
- Consumer sentiment plummeted to 47.6, the lowest in the 74-year survey history
Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has set a year-end price target of 7,600 for the S&P 500, representing a 7% increase from present levels. His bullish outlook centers on sustained corporate earnings expansion.
Since March 30, the S&P 500 has climbed 12%, marking its most rapid advance since the pandemic recovery in April 2020 and before that, the post-financial crisis rebound of March 2009.
Snider observed a recurring market behavior where equities have rebounded ahead of complete clarity on economic conditions, a pattern evident in 2009, 2020, and now 2025.
The investment bank is advising clients to accumulate growth-oriented equities that have experienced price corrections. Snider highlighted opportunities in companies connected to electrical grid expansion and those with minimal exposure to artificial intelligence displacement risks.
Goldman’s preferred stocks include Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Meta, and Micron. These companies are viewed as possessing robust profit trajectories that aren’t dependent on overall economic acceleration.
Investors have mostly dismissed worries about gasoline hitting $4 per gallon and elevated crude oil costs. Market watchers indicate the critical concern would be oil breaching $150 per barrel, a threshold that remains untouched.
Tom Essaye, who founded Sevens Report Research, characterized the current market environment as one where investors are purchasing during temporary declines. He emphasized that crude oil reaching $150–$200 per barrel would constitute the genuine warning indicator.
Consumer Sentiment Reaches Historic Bottom
Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs is cautioning that American consumers face mounting financial strain. Fuel costs have jumped nearly 40% since hostilities with Iran intensified.
Goldman strategist Ronnie Walker calculates this increase translates to approximately $140 billion in annualized household income erosion. Families with lower earnings bear the brunt disproportionately, allocating roughly four times more of their budgets to gasoline compared to wealthy households.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in the current month, an 11% decline from March and the weakest result since the measurement began 74 years ago, undershooting even the depths of the 2008 financial meltdown.
Expectations for inflation over the next twelve months climbed to 4.8%, representing the sharpest monthly increase in a year.
Select Consumer Companies Demonstrate Resilience
Despite broader headwinds, certain consumer-focused businesses report stable demand. PepsiCo’s CEO Ramon Laguarta noted that affordably-priced Frito-Lay products continue performing strongly, with unit sales volume strengthening during the first quarter.
Kecia Steelman, CEO of Ulta Beauty, reported that customers maintain their beauty product purchases and store visit frequency. She emphasized that 95% of transactions flow through the company’s loyalty platform, where members indicate they refuse to reduce their personal care spending.
McDonald’s stock has diverged from the broader market recovery, declining 1% over the past 30 days. Dollar General and Dollar Tree have each advanced just 1% during the identical timeframe.
Retail sales figures for March, scheduled for release Tuesday, will provide insight into how American consumers adjusted their spending patterns in response to elevated energy expenses.
