TLDR
- Brent crude climbed past $111 per barrel while WTI approached $106, marking a 12% weekly increase
- Crude prices have jumped over 25% in the last fortnight as the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane stays blocked
- Tehran’s Supreme Leader pledged to keep the strait under Iranian authority while defending nuclear and missile capabilities
- ConocoPhillips forecasted “critical shortages” for nations reliant on imports beginning potentially in June
- American crude shipments reached unprecedented levels as international markets seek alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies
Energy markets witnessed another rally on Friday as the conflict between Washington and Tehran stretched into its third month without resolution, maintaining the shutdown of a crucial global oil passageway.
Brent crude futures for July delivery climbed above the $111 per barrel threshold. West Texas Intermediate approached $106. The benchmarks registered approximately 12% gains for the week and have surged over 25% across the previous fortnight.
The Strait of Hormuz, previously transporting approximately one-fifth of global petroleum supplies before hostilities commenced, continues to be effectively non-operational. This disruption has sent shockwaves through international energy markets, triggering volatile price fluctuations in recent trading sessions.
President Donald Trump indicated that the American naval embargo around Iranian harbors is achieving its objectives and will continue indefinitely. While he previously expressed optimism that economic leverage would bring Iran to the negotiating table, diplomatic discussions have essentially ground to a halt.
🚨IRAN WAR “FINAL BLOW” BRIEFING REPORTED
CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper briefed President Trump in the Situation Room on a potential “final blow” to Iran, per Fox News.
Axios reports Trump currently views the naval blockade as his main leverage, but could consider military… pic.twitter.com/szyy4nwpzt
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) May 1, 2026
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei of Iran delivered an uncommon public declaration on Thursday, asserting that the Islamic Republic refuses to abandon its nuclear development or ballistic missile initiatives. He further emphasized that Tehran intends to maintain authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
The pronouncement offered minimal prospects for immediate tension reduction. Although a ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran holds, meaningful diplomatic advancement has been scarce.
Supply Crunch Warning
ConocoPhillips Chief Financial Officer Andy O’Brien cautioned analysts during Thursday’s briefing that certain nations might encounter “critical shortages” of petroleum products as early as next month.
He clarified that oil tankers that departed Persian Gulf terminals in late February have now completed their voyages. With that inventory cushion exhausted, import-reliant economies may experience significant supply pressure in coming weeks.
“We are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June-July time frame,” O’Brien said.
Thursday reports also indicated Trump is considering additional military strategies, including forcible reopening of the waterway, executing further strikes on Iranian targets, or conducting a special operations mission to confiscate Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles.
Physical Market Tightness Builds
Market analysts at ANZ observed that the differential between futures oil prices and actual physical market valuations is contracting. This signals that tangible supply constraints are materializing for the first time since the conflict’s onset.
American crude shipments abroad jumped to unprecedented volumes last week as international purchasers pivoted to United States producers to compensate for unavailable Middle Eastern barrels.
Japan’s senior currency official announced readiness to take action in crude oil futures markets, where speculative activity has been impacting the yen’s value. Japanese authorities intervened in foreign exchange markets on Thursday to support the yen, triggering the steepest decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index since January.
Trading activity remained subdued across Asian markets on Friday, with multiple major economies including China, Germany, and France observing Labor Day closures.
Brent’s June futures contract concluded trading Thursday after reaching a four-year peak exceeding $126 per barrel.
