TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes refuses to invest in Bitcoin at current levels and is holding out for Federal Reserve monetary easing
- Bitcoin currently hovers around $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
- Hayes highlights escalating US-Iran conflict as a potential catalyst for sell-offs across equities and cryptocurrency markets
- According to Hayes, “money printing is good for Bitcoin” — not military conflict — and he plans to buy when quantitative easing resumes
- Despite near-term bearish outlook, Hayes maintains his ambitious $250,000 Bitcoin price projection
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made it clear: he’s keeping his capital on the sidelines when it comes to Bitcoin. During an appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, Hayes explained that he’s awaiting a definitive policy shift from the US Federal Reserve before deploying capital.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
Bitcoin is presently valued at approximately $69,926. This represents a steep 45% pullback from its October record high of $126,000.
Hayes identified the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran as a primary concern informing his cautious stance. He believes prolonged geopolitical conflict increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will expand monetary supply.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he explained.
Hayes was careful to draw a distinction between armed conflict and monetary expansion. He pushed back against the notion that warfare itself benefits Bitcoin.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he clarified. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Downside Risk Still on the Table
Hayes also cautioned that Bitcoin could slip beneath the $60,000 threshold if macroeconomic headwinds intensify. Such a scenario, he believes, could spark forced liquidations across the market.
Bitcoin temporarily tested the $60,000 level on February 6 before recovering modestly. Hayes suggests the current valuation still allows for additional downside movement.
He explained that a sustained risk-averse sentiment in equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower alongside traditional assets. A widespread market downdraft, he contends, would likely trigger cascading liquidations throughout the crypto ecosystem.
Other Analysts More Optimistic
Hayes’ bearish near-term outlook contrasts with more bullish perspectives from other market commentators. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted a significant rally in the Nasdaq as an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe suggested there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and anticipates continued gains for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks.
Hayes hasn’t abandoned optimism entirely. He indicated that he doesn’t foresee Bitcoin trading beneath $100,000 for many more years.
His ambitious long-term projection of $250,000 for Bitcoin remains unchanged. Hayes has publicly advocated for this price target since late last year.
Hayes emphasized that his current wait-and-see approach stems purely from macroeconomic considerations, not from any skepticism about Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition.
He stressed that the critical indicator to monitor is when central banks transition from restrictive monetary policy to accommodative measures. That inflection point, he said, will signal his re-entry into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin temporarily touched $60,000 on February 6 before establishing a modest upward trajectory, and now trades around $69,926.
