Key Takeaways
- Investment firm Bernstein anticipates prediction market volumes will climb to $240 billion this year and reach $1 trillion by decade’s end
- Combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $60 billion in early 2026 — surpassing 2025’s entire annual total
- Kalshi’s weekly volume has skyrocketed from $100 million to more than $3 billion over the past 12 months
- Federal regulatory frameworks and blockchain technology are fueling industry expansion
- Robinhood and Coinbase identified as primary publicly traded investment vehicles for sector exposure
The prediction market sector is poised for explosive expansion that could push annual volumes past the trillion-dollar threshold before 2030 concludes, per fresh analysis from Bernstein.
🚨PREDICTION MARKETS COULD HIT $1T BY 2030
Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to grow from $51B in 2025 to $1T by 2030, with revenues topping $10B.
Robinhood and Coinbase could emerge as key distribution platforms. pic.twitter.com/GqTbmxShqm
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 15, 2026
Bernstein’s research team projects that prediction market activity will surge to approximately $240 billion during 2026 — representing a staggering 370% increase from last year’s figures. With an estimated compound annual growth rate hovering around 80%, analysts anticipate the industry will achieve $1 trillion in yearly volume by 2030.
The market’s two dominant forces, Kalshi and Polymarket, have collectively generated roughly $60 billion in trading activity during the opening months of 2026. This figure already exceeds the $51 billion total recorded throughout the entirety of 2025.
Kalshi commands over 90% of the domestic prediction market landscape. The platform’s weekly transaction volume has experienced remarkable expansion, jumping from approximately $100 million twelve months ago to surpassing $3 billion in recent weeks.
Bank of America’s Julie Hoover characterized Kalshi as among the “fastest growing non-AI companies” operating in America today. According to Hoover, the platform’s expansion trajectory mirrors the explosive growth patterns witnessed during the artificial intelligence surge.
Forces Behind the Expansion
The prediction market phenomenon began accelerating during the 2024 presidential election cycle. Momentum sustained through 2025 as participants increasingly gravitated toward sports wagering, digital currency predictions, and macroeconomic forecasting contracts.
Gautam Chhugani, an analyst at Bernstein, identifies three primary catalysts: clearer federal regulatory guidelines, strategic partnerships with mainstream distribution channels, and superior liquidity when compared to state-governed betting platforms.
Blockchain infrastructure is emerging as another critical component. The technology facilitates worldwide liquidity pools and empowers platforms to create contracts surrounding highly specialized or narrow-focus events, simultaneously reducing entry barriers for institutional capital.
Chhugani anticipates a significant evolution in contract composition moving forward. While sports-related contracts currently comprise over 60% of total volume, he projects this proportion will decline to approximately 30% by 2030 as institutional-grade contracts centered on economics, political outcomes, and corporate events expand their footprint.
The competitive landscape continues welcoming fresh entrants. Major players including Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have either launched prediction market offerings or are actively developing their platforms.
Legal Challenges on the Horizon
Despite rapid growth, the industry confronts meaningful legal uncertainties. Litigation is currently active across 14 U.S. states, while four separate congressional proposals are under consideration. Primary concerns revolve around insider trading risks and jurisdictional authority questions.
Multiple states maintain they possess regulatory jurisdiction over sports-oriented prediction contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission disputes these claims, asserting exclusive federal oversight of the entire sector.
Chhugani remains optimistic that these obstacles won’t substantially impede long-term industry trajectory. He believes leading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket will benefit from improving cooperation with federal oversight bodies including the SEC and CFTC.
Robinhood’s prediction market division recently celebrated its first anniversary and is now producing $350 million in annualized recurring revenue. The segment represents roughly 30% of Kalshi’s aggregate volume and stands as Robinhood’s most rapidly expanding business unit.
For investors seeking publicly traded exposure to private prediction market companies, Chhugani highlighted Robinhood and Coinbase as the most relevant proxy investments available.
