Key Highlights
- AFRM shares jumped Wednesday, beginning trading at $58.40 compared to Tuesday’s close of $55.82, finishing at $59.32 with approximately 2.4 million shares traded.
- Bryan Keane from Citi Research initiated an “Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch” on AFRM in anticipation of the company’s investor day scheduled for May 12.
- The analyst anticipates management will announce medium-term revenue growth projections exceeding 20% while refining profitability margin expectations.
- Despite a LendingTree study revealing 47% of buy now, pay later users missed payments over the past year (compared to 41% in 2025), the stock maintained its upward trajectory.
- While AFRM remains down 20% for the year, it has surged more than 14% over the past two trading days; Street consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with an $85 mean price target.
The fintech company’s latest quarterly results demonstrated earnings per share of $0.37, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.28 by $0.09. Top-line revenue reached $1.12 billion, representing a 29.6% year-over-year increase and beating the $1.06 billion consensus forecast. The company posted a net margin of 7.6% and delivered an 8.83% return on equity.
Yet despite these impressive quarterly numbers, shares have faced headwinds. The stock has declined 20% in 2026 amid increasing consumer delinquency rates and challenging conditions across the fintech sector. This context made Wednesday’s rally particularly noteworthy.
Shares advanced 6.7% during Wednesday’s session, building on the previous day’s 7.4% increase. The momentum originated from a research note issued by Citi Research’s Bryan Keane, who assigned an “Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch” to AFRM in advance of the company’s investor day on May 12.
According to Keane, management will likely update medium-term financial targets initially established in 2023 — benchmarks the company has consistently exceeded in his assessment.
Citi’s Projections for the Upcoming Investor Day Event
Keane anticipates a medium-term revenue growth forecast surpassing 20%. Additionally, he expects Affirm to narrow its revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margin guidance to between 3.5% and 4% of gross merchandise volume, an improvement from the previous 3% to 4% range.
During the most recent earnings conference call, CFO Rob O’Hare indicated that RLTC take rates should surpass 4% in both the third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2026.
Keane’s model also incorporates GAAP operating margin guidance of 18% to 20%, combined with an anticipated GAAP tax rate near 20%. He maintains a Buy recommendation with a $100 price objective on the shares.
The wider analyst community remains generally optimistic. Among 28 analysts providing coverage, one rates the stock Strong Buy, 19 rate it Buy, and eight recommend Hold. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with an $85 mean price target. Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an $85 target; Oppenheimer holds an $83 price objective with an “outperform” rating; Compass Point has established a $68 Buy target.
Goldman Sachs downgraded AFRM from Buy to Hold during February.
Buy Now, Pay Later Sector Challenges Emerge
The stock’s advance occurred even as a new LendingTree study highlighted deteriorating credit quality in the BNPL space. The consumer survey, which included over 2,000 respondents, revealed that 47% had missed a BNPL payment within the past year, escalating from 41% in 2025 and 34% in 2024.
More than half of survey participants indicated they depend on BNPL financing “to make ends meet.” Nearly one-third disclosed using BNPL services for grocery purchases.
In February, Affirm’s COO Michael Linford challenged the BNPL classification during an interview with Barron’s, characterizing the company as “at its core, a software company” and arguing that grouping Affirm with the broader BNPL sector represents “a bit of a shortcut.”
The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 72.82, a PEG ratio of 3.60, and carries a beta of 3.63. The 50-day moving average stands at $49.42, while the 200-day moving average is $64.17. Institutional ownership accounts for 69.29% of outstanding shares.
