Key Takeaways
- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, forecasts the CLARITY Act will clear Congress in May, followed by presidential approval in June
- Industry observers view May 25 (Memorial Day) as the critical cutoff point for legislative progress
- Senate Banking Committee failed to schedule anticipated markup session, causing frustration among crypto advocates
- Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, estimates only a 50% probability of 2026 passage
- More than 100 cryptocurrency companies submitted a collective appeal pressing the Senate Banking Committee to convene a markup session
As time runs short for cryptocurrency regulation, the CLARITY Act confronts a narrowing timeline for enactment. Despite securing bipartisan approval in the House during July 2025, the proposed legislation—designed to establish enduring regulatory parameters for digital assets—remains gridlocked in the Senate.
During a conversation with SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci on a recent podcast, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz outlined his expectations for committee action during early May. According to Novogratz, President Trump will likely affix his signature to the measure sometime in June.
“This legislation is going to cross the finish line. My expectation is completion in May,” Novogratz stated.
Novogratz emphasized the bill’s international implications beyond American borders. According to his analysis, passage could extend access to U.S. financial instruments to approximately 5.5 billion individuals globally who currently lack such opportunities.
“Mobile devices equipped with cryptocurrency wallets will become the gateway for young people in Bhutan, Botswana, Bolivia, and Paraguay to engage with America’s economy,” he explained.
Last week witnessed over 100 digital asset firms co-signing a public appeal demanding the Senate Banking Committee establish a date for markup proceedings. Such a hearing represents the essential preliminary action before legislation can advance to a comprehensive Senate floor vote.
However, contrary to widespread industry expectations, the committee declined to announce such a hearing by the end of last week.
Time Running Short
Since December, May 25—Memorial Day—has been recognized as the practical deadline for meaningful progress on the bill. Following this date, congressional members typically depart Washington for campaign activities before upcoming elections, substantially reducing opportunities for legislative work.
Competing Senate priorities complicate matters further. Confirmation proceedings for Kevin Warsh as potential Federal Reserve chair await resolution. Simultaneously, the House of Representatives concentrates on Department of Homeland Security appropriations legislation.
On April 10, Senator Cynthia Lummis issued an urgent warning regarding the legislation’s significance.
“We’re facing our final opportunity to enact the Clarity Act until 2030 at minimum. Abandoning America’s financial leadership isn’t an option,” she declared on X.
Unresolved Issues Persist
A primary point of contention centers on whether stablecoin interest payments would undermine traditional banks’ competitive positioning. This concern, combined with questions surrounding stablecoin marketing practices and decentralized finance regulatory frameworks, has impeded Senate advancement.
Representative French Hill, leading the House Financial Services Committee, indicated that numerous contentious matters were already addressed in the House-approved version.
Novogratz’s confident outlook isn’t universally shared. Galaxy Digital’s research chief Alex Thorn assigns current passage probability for 2026 at merely 50%.
“Should markup proceedings extend beyond mid-May, likelihood of passage will decline dramatically,” Thorn cautioned.
Absent congressional action, regulatory frameworks implemented by the Securities and Exchange Commission remain provisional and vulnerable to reversal under subsequent administrations.
The Senate Banking Committee has yet to publicize any scheduled date for markup hearings.
