Key Takeaways
- Fresh data from the UK Gambling Commission covering 21 months through February 2026 reveals no consistent upward trend in unlicensed gambling engagement
- Virtual private network adoption surged approximately 40% following the July 2025 implementation of the Online Safety Act, concealing unauthorized betting traffic
- The regulator’s existing 30% VPN adjustment factor appears insufficient to account for current levels of masked activity
- Traffic estimation methodologies contain inherent error ranges and fail to track mobile app usage or direct connections, limiting precision in volume calculations
- The Commission is collaborating with overseas regulatory bodies and licensed gaming operators to enhance data quality and enforcement strategies
The UK Gambling Commission announced this week that increasing virtual private network adoption is complicating efforts to monitor unauthorized online betting platforms. The regulatory body released revised analysis on Tuesday incorporating information through February 2026.
This publication followed a panel discussion addressing unlicensed gambling during the Commission’s Spring Evidence Conference held in Birmingham during March. Participants included industry stakeholders, representatives from the Netherlands’ gambling authority, and officials from HMRC.
Tim Livesley, who leads the Commission’s Data Innovation Hub, shared the conclusions through a blog entry. The research examines a 21-month timeframe and measures consumer involvement using estimated time spent on unauthorized gambling platforms.
The Commission’s findings indicate no sustained or uniform increase in illegal betting activity. An uptick noted during autumn 2024 failed to recur during the corresponding 2025 period.
Regulatory officials characterized the pattern as demonstrating fluctuation rather than continuous expansion. Additionally, no distinct seasonal patterns emerged from the analysis.
Virtual Private Network Adoption Following Online Safety Legislation
Implementation of the Online Safety Act during July 2025 triggered a significant increase in VPN adoption among British internet users. Information from Ofcom and analytics provider Similarweb validated this growth.
Ofcom’s measurements indicated VPN usage climbed dramatically in July 2025 before stabilizing at levels approximately 40% higher than baseline. Similarweb’s tracking revealed comparable trends with a slightly smaller initial surge.
The Commission had previously incorporated a 30% adjustment to traffic projections accounting for VPN-concealed activity. Nonetheless, regulatory officials now acknowledge a greater proportion of unlicensed gambling traffic may evade detection.
This realization led the Commission to incorporate two VPN adoption scenarios into its analytical framework. The outcome is expanded confidence ranges in data from mid-2025 forward.
The expansion in VPN usage initially stemmed from consumers seeking to circumvent limitations associated with the Online Safety Act. However, these identical technologies are now protecting unauthorized gambling operators from regulatory oversight.
Constraints of Web Traffic Analysis
The Commission emphasized that its calculations derive from web traffic projections, which contain inherent uncertainty margins. These projections fail to encompass all access methods to unlicensed gambling platforms.
Engagement through mobile applications or direct server connections remains outside the dataset. Consequently, the figures provide greater value for identifying patterns than quantifying absolute volumes.
Regulatory officials stated no individual data source merits treatment as conclusive. They characterized unlicensed gambling as a multifaceted challenge requiring diverse information inputs.
The Commission is currently developing supplementary data resources to complement traffic projections. These encompass the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and the Consumer Voice research initiative.
Livesley indicated the Commission is engaging with licensed operators and international regulatory counterparts. The objective involves validating current data and identifying additional datasets capable of enhancing comprehension of the unauthorized marketplace.
Precise measurement holds significance because it influences regulatory enforcement prioritization. Mechanisms including payment blocking, domain removal, and collaborations with financial organizations rely upon dependable information.
The Commission confirmed it will maintain regular publication of research and data updates throughout the year. It also intends to disclose additional information regarding expanded disruption and enforcement operations.
The November 2025 assessment had previously recognized that no current methodology could dependably estimate financial flows to unlicensed operators. Three methodological approaches underwent testing at that juncture, with none deemed suitable.
Six months afterward, the methodology remains under development. The Commission affirmed it continues prioritizing unlicensed gambling as a central enforcement focus.
