TLDR
- Grayscale Research claims Bitcoin’s low occurred in the $65,000-$70,000 zone during February 2026
- Recent buyer cohorts are approaching breakeven levels near $74,000 according to on-chain metrics
- BTC surged to a 3-month peak of $78,417 following Trump’s extension of the US-Iran ceasefire
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has shifted to neutral territory for the first time this bear cycle
- Benjamin Cowen, CryptoQuant, and other researchers anticipate additional downside through late 2026
Grayscale Research has made a bold declaration: Bitcoin has already found its bottom. According to the investment firm, BTC established its floor within the $65,000-$70,000 range during February 2026. However, this perspective isn’t universally accepted across the analyst community.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s research chief and former macro strategist at Goldman Sachs, anchored his assessment in on-chain metrics. Following a rally exceeding 20% from the February 5 bottom near $63,000, Bitcoin has pulled recent buyers close to their entry prices.
The primary indicator informing Grayscale’s thesis is the realized price metric, which calculates the average acquisition cost of coins based on their most recent blockchain movement. For holdings that transferred within the last one to three months, this realized price hovers around $74,000—marginally beneath Bitcoin’s current trading level.
“Should Bitcoin’s value continue climbing in the near term, more recent purchasers would transition into profitable territory, potentially signaling the initial stage of a bull market,” Pandl explained.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month zenith of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. This upward movement coincided with President Donald Trump’s decision to prolong the US-Iran ceasefire, driving oil prices back under $90 per barrel. At press time, BTC was changing hands around $77,990, accompanied by a 14% surge in 24-hour trading volume.
Bull Market Indicator Registers First Shift
Julio Moreno, research director at CryptoQuant, highlighted that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has transitioned to neutral for the first time throughout this bearish phase. While noteworthy, Moreno referenced a similar brief occurrence in March 2022 that preceded continued price declines.
Derivatives markets also displayed bullish characteristics. Aggregate BTC futures open interest expanded nearly 6% to $59.53 billion over 24 hours. CME open interest increased approximately 1%, while Binance registered a 6% jump.
10x Research observed that April spot Bitcoin ETF flows are trending positively, despite funding rates remaining in negative territory and trading volumes staying subdued. The research group also noted institutional accumulation patterns emerging earlier in this cycle compared to the previous two recovery periods.
Alternative Forecasts Point to Further Downside
Grayscale’s optimistic outlook doesn’t resonate with all market observers. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, shared with BeInCrypto that his primary scenario places the cycle bottom in October 2026. He emphasized that an earlier trough would require extreme capitulation beyond typical mid-term year patterns.
“An earlier bottom, potentially as soon as May, remains possible. However, achieving that outcome would necessitate substantial capitulation significantly exceeding what we traditionally observe during midterm years,” Cowen stated.
Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, projects a bottom arriving in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has established a broader timeframe spanning June through December 2026, identifying September to November as the highest probability window.
Bitcoin has also crossed above analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance band on weekly timeframes. This threshold has historically represented significant inflection points for the cryptocurrency.
