TLDR
- Prediction market Polymarket shows CLARITY Act passage probability at 38% for 2026, down 23 percentage points
- Banking Committee markup scheduled for late May according to Senator Bernie Moreno
- Galaxy Digital analysts estimate 50-50 odds for bill approval this year
- American Bankers Association requests additional 60-day period for regulatory comment
- TD Cowen identifies five additional hurdles beyond stablecoin interest payment controversy
The United States Senate continues to grapple with scheduling challenges for the CLARITY Act, comprehensive crypto legislation that secured House approval in July 2025. Forward momentum has ground to a halt amid intensifying friction between traditional banking institutions and digital asset advocates, while the legislative calendar offers diminishing opportunities for passage before year’s end.
During a Washington, D.C. appearance on April 22, Senator Bernie Moreno projected the markup would take place “by the end of May.” He dismissed banking sector concerns about stablecoin interest payments as “a lot of noise in the system” that is “completely fake.”
Senator Thom Tillis has advocated for Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott to calendar the markup during May, acknowledging that additional negotiation time is necessary to bridge the gap between traditional finance and crypto interests regarding stablecoin yield provisions.
Crypto-friendly lawmakers are applying pressure. Senator Cynthia Lummis alongside advocacy organization The Digital Chamber have called on the Senate Banking Committee to expedite markup scheduling.
On Tuesday, the American Bankers Association submitted correspondence to multiple federal agencies—the Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control. The letter requested an additional 60-day window to provide feedback on regulations connected to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation, which became law in July 2025.
According to the ABA, guidance from various agencies relies substantially on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s pending rulemaking, rendering substantive commentary premature until that regulatory framework is complete.
Prediction platforms have adjusted their forecasts following these setbacks. Polymarket currently assigns a 38% probability to CLARITY Act passage in 2026, representing a 23-point decline. Kalshi places the likelihood at 14% before July and 39% before August.
The probability of President Trump affixing his signature to the legislation before 2027 has edged upward to 58%, compared to 53% from earlier in the week.
What Galaxy Digital Is Saying
Digital asset firm Galaxy Digital pegs passage probability for this year at approximately 50%. Alex Thorn, the company’s Head of Research, identified several outstanding issues including stablecoin yield provisions, decentralized finance regulations, ethics requirements, and developer liability protections.
The legislation must still navigate Senate Banking Committee approval, achieve a 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor, and undergo reconciliation with separate versions from the Agriculture Committee and House of Representatives.
The Senate Calendar Problem
Galaxy Digital highlighted the compressed Senate working schedule preceding the August recess. Senators maintain session throughout April, reconvene from May 11 through May 22, then face only three-week periods in both June and July before a five-week August break.
Thorn cautioned that markup delays extending beyond mid-May would substantially diminish the probability of enacting the bill this year.
TD Cowen enumerated five supplementary complications: insufficient commissioner appointments at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, unresolved prediction market regulations, examination of Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial, Iran’s alleged cryptocurrency usage for Strait of Hormuz transit fees raising money laundering red flags, and the Credit Card Competition Act.
Senator Lummis has cautioned that failure to pass the legislation this year could postpone reconsideration until 2030.
