Key Takeaways
- United Airlines revised its 2026 full-year EPS projection downward to $7–$11 from a previous forecast of $12–$14, citing elevated jet fuel expenses.
- First quarter 2026 performance exceeded analyst projections — delivering EPS of $1.19 versus the anticipated $1.15, with revenue reaching $14.61B against a $14.19B estimate.
- Rising jet fuel expenses created approximately $340M in additional costs during the first quarter, prompting United to reduce planned capacity by roughly 5 percentage points.
- Second quarter 2026 EPS outlook was set at $1.00–$2.00, falling short of the Wall Street expectation of $1.96.
- UAL shares declined 1.8% to close at $97.13 following the announcement, while company president Brett J. Hart divested 19,000 shares in February.
United Airlines delivered a solid first quarter performance that surpassed analyst expectations, yet the carrier’s substantial reduction to its annual profit outlook sent shares tumbling despite the quarterly success.
During the first quarter of 2026, UAL reported earnings per share of $1.19, exceeding the analyst consensus of $1.15. The carrier generated $14.61 billion in revenue, surpassing Wall Street’s projection of $14.19 billion. The company achieved net margins of 5.68% alongside a return on equity of 25.13%.
However, the positive quarterly performance was quickly eclipsed by the company’s revised outlook. The airline dramatically reduced its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $7–$11, representing a significant decline from the previously announced $12–$14 range. This revision represents a potential reduction of up to $7 from the upper end of the original guidance.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL
The primary driver behind the revision: surging jet fuel costs. Elevated Gulf Coast jet fuel prices imposed approximately $340 million in additional expenses throughout the quarter. United emphasized that ongoing fuel price volatility represents a significant risk factor that will determine where actual results fall within the updated guidance range.
Should fuel prices moderate, United anticipates achieving results toward the upper end of its revised projection. Conversely, if elevated fuel costs persist, performance will likely trend toward the lower end of the range.
Fleet Capacity Reductions Announced
In response to rising costs, United intends to reduce approximately 5 percentage points from its previously announced capacity plans. The airline now projects third and fourth quarter capacity to range from flat to up 2%.
For the second quarter of 2026, United issued EPS guidance of $1.00–$2.00. This compares unfavorably to analyst expectations of approximately $1.96, positioning United’s midpoint below the Street consensus.
The notably wide guidance range underscores the extent to which fuel price fluctuations are currently influencing the company’s financial trajectory.
Wall Street Maintains Largely Bullish Stance
Notwithstanding the guidance reduction, analyst sentiment remains predominantly positive. United maintains a consensus “Buy” rating among analysts, with an average price target of $131.19. The stock has garnered fifteen Buy ratings, one Strong Buy recommendation, and just a single Hold rating.
Barclays maintains an “Overweight” stance with a $150 price objective. TD Cowen recently elevated UAL to “Strong Buy” status. Wells Fargo reduced its price target to $130 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating.
UAL currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5x, positioned at the lower end relative to peers in the airline industry. The company’s GF Score of 82 out of 100 suggests promising long-term prospects based on profitability metrics and growth potential.
Nevertheless, United’s financial strength score registers at 5 out of 10, highlighting ongoing concerns regarding debt levels and liquidity position. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio currently stands at 1.35.
Regarding insider activity, company president Brett J. Hart divested 19,000 UAL shares during February at an average sale price of $106.45, generating proceeds of approximately $2 million. No insider buying activity has been documented over the past three months.
UAL stock closed Tuesday’s session at $97.13, declining $1.78 for the day, on trading volume of 9.74 million shares — exceeding its average daily volume of 7.19 million. The stock has traded within a 12-month range of $65.26 to $119.21.
