Key Takeaways
- Robinhood shares have climbed approximately 33% from late-March lows but still trade 23% below year-to-date highs
- Bernstein maintains Outperform rating with $130 target, suggesting roughly 50% potential upside
- Analyst Gautam Chhugani argues weak first quarter results are already reflected in current valuation
- 2026 crypto revenue projections exceed consensus by 31%; prediction market estimates 30% above Street expectations
- Prediction market segment revenue expected to climb 286% annually to approximately $586 million in 2026
Robinhood’s stock performance has been turbulent recently. Shares have plunged 53% from the 52-week peak of $153.86 and are currently trading 23% below where they started the year. Declining trading activity, weakening cryptocurrency revenue streams, and challenging macroeconomic conditions have contributed to the downturn.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani remains firmly optimistic.
The analyst has reaffirmed his Outperform rating alongside a $130 price objective for HOOD shares in advance of the company’s first quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for April 28. Based on the current trading price near $71.67, this target suggests potential gains of approximately 50%.
Chhugani’s thesis centers on a straightforward premise: disappointing Q1 performance is already reflected in the stock’s valuation, positioning investors to concentrate on future prospects.
Cryptocurrency Revival as Primary Growth Engine
Chhugani maintains that Bitcoin has established a floor and anticipates a substantial crypto market recovery starting in the second quarter.
His projections show Robinhood’s cryptocurrency revenues climbing 23% on an annual basis to $1.1 billion during 2026. This segment would represent approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. A wider digital asset price recovery through the latter half of the year should stimulate retail trader participation and enhance transaction margins.
Bitstamp, which Robinhood acquired for $200 million last June, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes the acquisition as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid expansion in institutional trading activity and noting it now generates roughly 60% of overall crypto transaction volumes.
Bernstein’s 2026 cryptocurrency revenue forecast exceeds Wall Street consensus by 31%. Looking toward 2027, their projections surpass consensus by 18% on revenue and 25% on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets: Leading Revenue Expansion
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most significant incremental growth avenue for Robinhood during 2026.
This segment’s revenue is forecast to surge from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026—representing 286% year-over-year expansion. The category would constitute about 17% of transaction-driven revenues while driving around 30% of total revenue growth.
The analyst also highlights an “event-rich” calendar ahead: the United States will host the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm elections later that year should fuel political prediction market trading.
In the broader context, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total addressable brokerage revenue market. Its retail trading revenue market share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, propelled by growth in cryptocurrency and prediction market offerings.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue projection stands 9% above consensus, with earnings per share 16% higher. For 2027, revenue forecasts exceed consensus by 18% while EPS estimates are 25% above.
Not all analysts share this optimism. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, referencing weakening transaction revenues. Mizuho lowered its target to $105 from $110, highlighting softer net interest income. Citizens decreased its target to $155 from $180 after adjusting Q1 2026 EBITDA projections to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 tracked analysts, 14 assign HOOD a Buy rating while 3 recommend Hold, yielding a Strong Buy consensus. The average price objective stands at $104.56, implying approximately 20% upside from present levels.
First quarter earnings are scheduled for April 28.
