Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer has elevated Blackstone (BX) to “Outperform” status from “Market Perform,” establishing a $154 price objective that suggests approximately 34% potential gains from its recent closing price around $114.86.
- Chris Kotowski, the firm’s analyst, emphasized BX’s exceptional performance history dating back to 2009, particularly praising its unmatched real estate platform.
- The firm delivered impressive Q4 results with earnings per share of $1.75, surpassing expectations of $1.54, while revenue reached $4.36B — representing a 41.4% jump from the prior year.
- In a notable insider transaction, Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone acquired approximately 2.87M shares worth $75M during March, expanding its ownership position by 18.2%.
- Shares currently hover around $114.86, significantly below the 12-month peak of $190.09, while the consensus analyst price target stands at $155.27.
Blackstone (BX) shares climbed 1.5% during early Monday market action following an upgrade from Oppenheimer, which characterized the recent decline as an excessive market response to broader sector concerns.
Chris Kotowski, the analyst behind the upgrade, acknowledged that BX has endured a “drubbing” despite delivering what he characterized as “outstanding performance.” His new price objective of $154 represents roughly 34% upside from Monday’s opening level of $114.86.
Kotowski, who has maintained coverage of Blackstone since 2009, singled out the company’s real estate division as its most compelling competitive advantage. He characterized it as “without peer,” identifying Brookfield as a distant competitor.
Both real estate and private credit sectors have experienced investor skepticism recently. However, Oppenheimer maintains that market concerns surrounding these asset classes are excessive.
“The current dislocation is giving investors a chance to buy the industry’s premier franchise at a very attractive valuation,” Kotowski wrote.
He also highlighted BX’s “capital light” business structure as a significant advantage. Since the firm doesn’t maintain a controlling position in an insurance subsidiary or carry substantial balance sheet investments, virtually all earnings are available for distribution to shareholders.
Impressive Quarterly Performance
Blackstone’s latest quarterly earnings report provided additional support for the upgrade thesis. The firm delivered Q4 EPS of $1.75, exceeding the Street’s consensus forecast of $1.54 by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue totaled $4.36B, substantially beating expectations of $3.69B and marking a 41.4% increase compared to the year-ago period. The company also achieved a net profit margin of 20.89% alongside a return on equity of 22.17%.
Current analyst projections anticipate full-year EPS of $5.87.
Notable Insider Transactions and Analyst Views
Regarding insider activity, major stakeholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone accumulated approximately 2.87 million shares on March 20th at an average cost of $26.15 each, representing a roughly $75 million investment. This purchase increased their holdings by 18.2%, pushing their total position above 18.6 million shares.
In a separate transaction, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC divested 7.48 million shares on March 17th — reducing their stake by 99.66% — at an average sale price of $3.51 per share.
Institutional ownership remains substantial at approximately 70% of outstanding shares.
Street sentiment on BX remains divided. TD Cowen lowered its price objective from $164 to $141 while maintaining a “buy” recommendation. Evercore adjusted its target downward from $175 to $170, keeping an “outperform” stance. Barclays established a $124 target with an “equal weight” rating. JPMorgan reduced its forecast to $122 with a “neutral” designation.
Currently, eleven analysts assign BX a buy rating, while eleven others maintain hold recommendations. The consensus average price target across all coverage stands at $155.27 — representing a “Moderate Buy” outlook.
Shares are trading near their 52-week low of $101.73, having retreated substantially from the 12-month high of $190.09. The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $117.75, while the 200-day moving average is positioned at $141.01.
