Key Takeaways
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) from Buy to Hold following an approximate 70% climb over roughly eight weeks.
- Paul Meeks, the firm’s analyst, boosted the price target from $108 to $154 while cautioning that valuation has become extended.
- NBIS shares have rocketed 574% over the trailing twelve months and currently trade close to their 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Meeks increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026 and 2027, positioning both above Street consensus.
- The analyst suggests CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) offer more attractive near-term risk-reward profiles.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has delivered an extraordinary performance. However, following a sharp 70% ascent since the beginning of February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has pumped the brakes—at least when it comes to his recommendation.
Meeks announced on Thursday that he was lowering his stance on NBIS from Buy to Hold. Simultaneously, he elevated his price objective to $154 from the previous $108. While raising a target alongside a downgrade may appear paradoxical, the reasoning is clear: the stock’s pace exceeded expectations.
NBIS began February trading around $85.19. By April 10, shares had climbed to $144.97. That represents an approximately $60 advance in slightly over two months. The stock now hovers near its 52-week pinnacle of $149.82.
Widen the lens further, and the trajectory becomes even more dramatic. Across the past year, NBIS has soared 574%.
Meeks isn’t raising red flags about the underlying business. On the contrary, his outlook has actually strengthened. Freedom Capital elevated both revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Each projection now exceeds consensus Wall Street estimates.
The figures are impressive. Between 2026 and 2027, Freedom Capital anticipates revenue will expand by more than 200%, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to climb roughly 336%.
Catalysts Behind the Bullish Forecasts
A major driver of that anticipated 2027 surge is a capacity expansion unveiled on March 31. Nebius announced plans to introduce 310 MW of AI infrastructure at its Lappeenranta, Finland location. That additional capacity is slated to become operational next year.
When fully operational, the installation is expected to rank among Europe’s premier AI factories. This represents a critical component of the growth narrative leading into 2027.
Freedom Capital’s revised $154 price target reflects 6 times the firm’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA forecast, down from 25 times its 2026 multiple—underscoring the dramatic ramp anticipated between those two periods.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $150 target. BWS Financial carries a $200 objective, following a $12 billion agreement Nebius landed with Meta Platforms—with the possibility of an additional $15 billion in future commitments.
Wall Street Sentiment
According to TipRanks, NBIS maintains a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The average analyst price target stands at $165.20, suggesting approximately 14% potential upside from present levels.
In March, Nebius completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering—expanded from the initially planned $3.75 billion. The issuance comprised $2.25 billion in notes maturing in 2031 and $1.75 billion due in 2033, with settlement occurring on March 20.
Meeks indicated that he currently views CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) as offering superior near-term risk-reward opportunities relative to NBIS at today’s valuation.
The downgrade centers on valuation rather than growth concerns. Freedom Capital continues to regard NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure play—simply one where the share price may require a period of consolidation before the fundamentals catch up.
