Key Takeaways
- While competitors like Southwest, United, and American Airlines have plunged over 10% in the past month, DAL has climbed approximately 5%
- First-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for Wednesday, April 8, prior to market opening
- Jet fuel has skyrocketed 103% within 30 days to $195 per barrel amid Iran tensions — Delta maintains an unhedged fuel position
- Wall Street forecasts Q1 revenue at $14.8B (up 5.38% year-over-year) with earnings per share projected at $0.62 versus $0.46 previously
- From a technical perspective, DAL trades above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, eyeing the $76 year-to-date peak as the next resistance level
As Delta Air Lines approaches its first-quarter financial disclosure on April 8, the carrier finds itself in a notably stronger position compared to industry competitors. Shares have appreciated roughly 5% during the previous 30-day stretch, contrasting sharply with declines exceeding 10% at Southwest, United, and American Airlines throughout the identical timeframe.
This performance differential stems from several strategic factors. Delta has aggressively pursued premium travel segments, capturing affluent passengers who maintain spending patterns despite economic uncertainties. During the fourth quarter, premium cabin revenues climbed 9% to approximately $5.7 billion, while economy class revenues declined 7% to $5.62 billion.
The carrier also demonstrated resilience following turbulence in late February, when shares dipped beneath the 50-day moving average amid rising bond yields and crude oil prices triggered by escalating Iran tensions. A decisive rebound on March 9 enabled DAL to reclaim ground above that critical technical threshold.
The crucial test arrives Wednesday.
Wall Street anticipates first-quarter revenues reaching $14.8 billion, representing a 5.38% year-over-year expansion, alongside earnings per share of $0.62 compared to $0.46 from the prior-year period. However, these projections face meaningful headwinds.
Escalating Fuel Expenses Present Major Risk
Delta operates without fuel hedging protection. This strategy now poses challenges. IATA data indicates average jet fuel prices have climbed to $195 per barrel — representing a 103% increase from one month prior — fueled by supply constraints linked to Iran-related geopolitical tensions.
This development directly compresses profit margins. Delta management will likely elaborate on how ongoing conflicts impact 2025 projections during the earnings call. While the airline successfully weathered oil price volatility following Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, the current acceleration presents significant obstacles.
Management previously issued Q1 adjusted earnings guidance ranging from $0.50 to $0.90 per share, with a $0.70 midpoint trailing the $0.72 analyst consensus prevailing at guidance issuance.
For fiscal 2025, Delta targets full-year earnings between $6.50 and $7.50 per share. Annual revenue projections stand at $67.2 billion for 2025, advancing to $70 billion in 2026.
Technical Indicators Suggest Upside Potential
Technically speaking, DAL demonstrates constructive positioning. Shares rebounded from a March floor of $55.20 and currently trade near $66.70. The stock maintains support above both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, alongside an upward-sloping trendline established since June of the previous year.
Price action has produced a harami candlestick formation — characterized by a compact bullish candle succeeding a larger bearish one — which technical analysts frequently interpret as a potential trend reversal indicator.
The year-to-date peak of $76 represents approximately 14% upside from present levels and constitutes the next meaningful technical objective.
In the fourth quarter, Delta generated $16 billion in revenue alongside $1.5 billion in operating income. Full-year 2024 results included revenues of $63.4 billion, operating profit of $5.8 billion, and operating cash flow totaling $14.1 billion.
