Key Takeaways
- Tesla shares have declined approximately 20% since the start of the year, marking six consecutive weeks of losses through Monday, March 30.
- Analyst consensus anticipates Q1 2026 deliveries near 366,000 units, representing growth from last year’s 337,000.
- Elon Musk has committed to launching Cybercab volume production this April.
- The company anticipates receiving supervised FSD clearance in the Netherlands during April, which could unlock wider European Union market access.
- First quarter earnings are forecast at 41 cents per share, compared to 27 cents during the same period in 2025.
Tesla (TSLA) shares were changing hands at $364.42 in early Monday trading, posting a 0.7% gain despite a year-to-date decline hovering around 20%.
Shares of Tesla edged 0.7% higher Monday morning following a challenging period marked by six straight weeks of declines. The electric vehicle manufacturer saw its stock retreat 2.8% on Friday, capping off another losing week at roughly 1.7% down and extending the six-week slide to approximately 13%.
Interestingly, the downward trend kicked off during the same week Tesla delivered Q4 2025 results that exceeded analyst forecasts. The automaker revealed earnings per share of 50 cents, surpassing the Street’s 43-cent projection. However, this figure represented a significant decline from the 73 cents recorded in Q4 2024, leaving market participants searching for signs of renewed expansion.
That opportunity arrives this Thursday when Tesla releases its Q1 2026 delivery figures just before the Good Friday market closure.
Analyst estimates center around 366,000 vehicle deliveries for the three-month period, marking an increase from the prior year’s 337,000 units. UBS disrupted the consensus outlook in mid-March with a forecast of only 345,000 deliveries — falling short of the broader analyst expectation hovering near 365,000. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 62% probability that actual deliveries will fall below 350,000.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery count reached 336,681 vehicles. A meaningful improvement over this baseline would suggest the sales weakness experienced during the first half of last year — largely blamed on the Model Y refresh cycle — has definitively concluded.
Robotaxi Production Set to Begin
Beyond quarterly delivery metrics, market watchers are closely monitoring progress on Tesla’s autonomous taxi initiative. Musk has publicly committed to initiating Cybercab volume manufacturing during April.
The complication: Tesla currently lacks any regulatory clearances for the Cybercab platform. Ramping up production without these authorizations creates potential risks around capital allocation and inventory buildup. Nevertheless, commencing production activities demonstrates execution capability and maintains attention on the company’s robotaxi vision.
Tesla debuted its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas last June and plans to extend operations to more cities during the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has emerged as a potential expansion market.
European FSD Breakthrough on the Horizon
Tesla is anticipating approval for supervised full self-driving capabilities in the Netherlands this April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has confirmed both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Securing Dutch approval could establish a framework for expanded EU market penetration — whether through comprehensive bloc-wide authorization or sequential country approvals. Tesla has experienced declining market share across Europe, and introducing FSD functionality there could strengthen its competitive standing in the region.
Along with delivery numbers, Cybercab developments, and European FSD progress, Tesla is expected to introduce the third-generation iteration of its Optimus humanoid robot within weeks and may finally showcase the repeatedly postponed Roadster.
Wall Street projects Q1 2026 earnings per share at 41 cents, up from 27 cents in the comparable 2025 quarter. Market participants will probably need to await the earnings conference call — scheduled approximately three weeks following the delivery announcement — for comprehensive updates on robotaxi expansion plans and the Optimus development roadmap.
