Key Takeaways
- Nvidia has fallen 8.2% in 2024 through Thursday, reaching its lowest close since mid-December
- The chipmaker’s forward P/E ratio stands at 19.7x, below the S&P 500’s 20.3x—marking the first discount in over 13 years
- Wolfe Research maintained its Outperform rating with a $275 target after Nvidia unveiled Rubin Ultra “Pods” at GTC
- Jensen Huang indicated the company might manufacture approximately 200 pods weekly—potentially translating to $120 billion monthly revenue, according to Wolfe’s analysis
- Retail trading data from J.P. Morgan shows NVDA continues to dominate as the top individual stock purchase
Nvidia (NVDA) finished Thursday’s trading session at $109.02, marking its weakest closing price since mid-December, as the chipmaker faces continued headwinds amid widespread selling in artificial intelligence stocks.
Shares were modestly higher by 0.3% in Friday’s premarket trading following Thursday’s decline.
Year-to-date, the stock has surrendered 8.2% heading into Friday’s opening bell.
The recent downturn has brought Nvidia’s valuation to an unusual position relative to the broader market. According to FactSet data, the stock currently carries a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 19.7 times—actually lower than the S&P 500’s 20.3 times average.
This represents a significant milestone. Nvidia had maintained a valuation premium versus the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis continuously for 13 years—stretching from February 2013 through late February of this year, based on Dow Jones Market Data.
The long-standing premium ended on February 28, coinciding with escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran that dampened investor sentiment. Since that date, Nvidia has alternated between trading at a discount and premium relative to the benchmark index.
Retail Demand Remains Robust
Notwithstanding the recent price decline, investor appetite for NVDA shares persists. The stock maintained its position as the most-purchased individual equity among retail traders during the week concluded March 25, based on J.P. Morgan’s retail trading analysis.
Investment experts featured in Barron’s Roundtable also expressed universally favorable views on the stock.
Broadcom (AVGO) declined 0.9% in Friday premarket activity, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) similarly retreated 0.9%.
Analysts Highlight Rubin Ultra Pod Revenue Potential
Wolfe Research reaffirmed its Outperform rating alongside a $275 price objective this week, pointing to Nvidia’s GTC conference unveiling of Rubin Ultra “Pods”—a standardized architecture for agentic AI data center deployment.
Wolfe’s analysis suggests approximately $150 million in Nvidia content per individual pod. About two-thirds of this value stems from VR200 racks, with Groq components accounting for the largest portion of additional revenue.
The research firm highlighted that newly introduced components such as CPU, storage systems, and Groq technology could boost revenue by 50% beyond VR compute racks alone. Specifically, Groq LPX racks contribute an additional 25% incremental opportunity relative to the VR200 foundation, delivering low-latency inference capabilities for premium service offerings.
In a recent interview on the Lex Fridman podcast, CEO Jensen Huang suggested the company might need to manufacture “about 200 of these per week, just for context.” Wolfe Research computed the implications: 200 pods produced weekly would generate approximately $120 billion monthly in potential revenue—a figure that dwarfs current 2027 consensus projections of $482 billion annually.
Rosenblatt sustained its Buy rating with a $325 price target, pointing to visibility exceeding $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Rubin platforms extending through 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald similarly retained an Overweight rating at $300 after Nvidia’s GTC presentation. InvestingPro reports that 31 analysts have increased their earnings projections for the upcoming period, with price targets climbing as high as $380.
