Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight position on Apple (AAPL) with a price target of $315
- The firm’s AlphaWise survey conducted in late 2025 revealed iPhone upgrade intentions reached unprecedented levels globally
- Upgrade rates in China jumped 9 percentage points compared to the previous year
- Apple is projected to be the sole major smartphone manufacturer expanding market share in 2026
- Interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features has weakened compared to last year
Apple experienced upward movement Monday following Morgan Stanley’s release of data from its AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey conducted in late 2025, which revealed exceptional iPhone replacement momentum as 2026 approaches.
Shares advanced approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Erik Woodring, the analyst covering the stock with an Overweight rating, maintained his $315 valuation target. According to Woodring, the survey results support his thesis that Apple’s positioning is considerably stronger than Wall Street’s prevailing sentiment suggests.
The survey showed global blended iPhone upgrade intentions reached 37% — representing a 2 percentage point year-over-year increase and establishing a new record for the survey series. In China, a region that has raised concerns among Apple shareholders, upgrade rates surged 9 percentage points year-over-year, also setting new highs.
Apple stock was hovering near that price point entering Monday’s session, with the technology giant commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E multiple of 31.47.
The survey showed consumer switching rates to Apple reached a 5-year peak. Desired average storage capacity increased 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of the surveyed installed base expressed interest in purchasing a foldable iPhone — a device category Apple has not yet entered.
iPhone Sales Projection Exceeds Consensus
Based on the survey findings, Woodring anticipates Apple will be the exclusive major global smartphone producer to capture additional market share throughout 2026.
His fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue projection stands 3% above Wall Street consensus, anticipating 6% growth compared to the Street’s 3% expectation. For fiscal 2027, his forecast exceeds consensus by 4% — which he characterizes as potentially the most robust two-year consecutive iPhone growth period in more than ten years.
Apple generated $435.6 billion in revenue during the trailing twelve months, representing 10% growth.
A Notable Weakness
The survey wasn’t uniformly positive. Consumer sentiment regarding Apple Intelligence — the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities — and willingness to pay for these features both deteriorated year-over-year.
Rising memory component costs are also anticipated to drive global smartphone pricing upward, with Android device makers viewed as better positioned to capitalize on this pricing trend compared to Apple.
Several other investment firms have recently issued perspectives. Bank of America reduced its Apple price objective to $320 from a previous level while maintaining a Buy rating, referencing anticipation surrounding a foldable iPhone debut in 2026. Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s approach of providing a wider spectrum of price options to expand market presence.
Apple Chief Operating Officer Sabih Khan recently traveled to the company’s Shenzhen research facility and conducted meetings with supply chain partners — demonstrating sustained operational emphasis on the Chinese market.
