Key Highlights
- The company increased Q4 2025 revenue projections to $29.1M–$30.1M from the previous $27M–$29M range
- Annual 2025 revenue forecast elevated to $49.7M–$50.7M, surpassing the earlier $47.6M–$49.6M estimate
- Fourth quarter net income projected at $82.9M to $83.4M, driven by approximately $102M warrant liability revaluation gain
- The company held approximately $551M in cash and equivalents at year-end 2025; secured roughly $1B in January 2026
- ONDS shares declined nearly 6% following the announcement; 2026 revenue target of $170M–$180M remains unchanged
Ondas (ONDS) unveiled enhanced revenue projections for the fourth quarter and complete fiscal year 2025 on Friday, yet shares tumbled approximately 6% during morning market activity.
The organization now projects Q4 2025 revenue ranging from $29.1 million to $30.1 million. This represents an increase from the previous forecast of $27 million to $29 million, initially released in January 2026.
Both metrics surpass Wall Street expectations. Financial analysts had anticipated Q4 revenue around $27.77 million and complete year revenue near $48.37 million.
The full-year 2025 revenue forecast now stands between $49.7 million and $50.7 million. This exceeds the prior guidance spanning $47.6 million to $49.6 million.
The update followed the company’s completion of supplementary financial closing processes after releasing preliminary figures on March 9. Leadership revised accounting calculations related to the fair value fluctuation of warrant liabilities.
This accounting modification is anticipated to generate a net benefit of approximately $102 million for both the fourth quarter and entire year. This gain, predominantly non-cash in nature, accounts for the substantial net income figures.
Fourth quarter net income is forecast between $82.9 million and $83.4 million. The complete 2025 fiscal year net income is expected to range from $50.4 million to $50.9 million.
Regarding EBITDA metrics, the outlook appears more challenging. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is anticipated between negative $9.9 million and negative $9.4 million. Annual adjusted EBITDA is projected between negative $31.5 million and negative $31 million.
Liquidity Strength
Ondas concluded 2025 holding approximately $551 million in cash and cash equivalents. Following a capital raise of roughly $1 billion on January 12, 2026, the company now maintains a current ratio of 15.3.
This represents an exceptionally robust liquidity position.
Forward-Looking Guidance for 2026
Ondas confirmed its complete 2026 revenue guidance spanning $170 million to $180 million. This projection does not incorporate any new acquisitions announced during 2026.
The organization has demonstrated significant merger and acquisition activity. Recent strategic initiatives include establishing a joint venture with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG focused on autonomous drone defense technology, purchasing INDO Earth Moving Ltd. through a $140 million defense contract, and securing complete ownership of 4M Defense Ltd. by acquiring the outstanding 30% stake from Chirokka Holding Ltd.
ONDS stock has experienced an extraordinary surge of approximately 1,458% throughout the past twelve months.
Complete fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results are scheduled for release on March 25, 2026, accompanied by a conference call starting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
