Key Takeaways
- Occidental stock climbed 16.9% last month, propelled by strengthening crude markets and impressive fourth-quarter results
- WTI crude gained 2.8% in February, reaching $67/barrel; early March saw an additional 10% surge past $73
- Fourth-quarter earnings per share hit $0.31, roughly double the $0.17 Wall Street consensus
- The company boosted its quarterly dividend payment from $0.24 to $0.26 per share, now yielding approximately 1.9%
- Regal Partners Ltd established a fresh $6.62M position in OXY; institutional ownership stands at 88.7%
Occidental’s shares rocketed almost 17% last month as crude oil markets strengthened and the energy producer delivered exceptional fourth-quarter financial results. The momentum has persisted into March, with shares adding another 4% in the month’s opening days.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, OXY
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.8% throughout February, finishing just above $67 per barrel — marking the highest closing price since early August. Brent crude increased 2.5%, ending near $72.50 per barrel.
The upward momentum stemmed primarily from heightened geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran. These tensions intensified in early March following U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, prompting Iranian retaliation targeting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Subsequently, WTI has advanced another 10% in March, breaking above $73 per barrel. Brent has jumped nearly 15%, surpassing $83 per barrel.
As a significant oil producer, Occidental stands to gain substantially from rising crude valuations. Elevated prices translate directly into increased revenue for every barrel extracted.
Fourth-Quarter Performance Exceeded Expectations
Occidental announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.31 for the fourth quarter, substantially outperforming the analyst consensus range of $0.17–$0.18. This achievement came despite oil prices remaining subdued throughout the reporting period.
Chief Executive Vicki Hollub attributed the success to operational excellence. Daily production approached 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent during the fourth quarter, exceeding the upper bound of company guidance. Exceptional results from Permian Basin operations and Rocky Mountain assets powered the outperformance.
Quarterly revenue totaled $5.11 billion, falling short of the $6.02 billion analyst projection. This represents a 5.2% year-over-year decline from the comparable period when EPS reached $0.80.
Looking ahead to full-year 2025, Wall Street analysts are projecting earnings per share of $3.58.
Occidental increased its quarterly dividend distribution to $0.26 per share from the previous $0.24. The annualized payout now totals $1.04, equating to approximately 1.9% yield. The dividend payment is scheduled for April 15 to investors of record as of March 10.
Financial Prudence and Balance Sheet Strategy
Management outlined intentions to reduce capital expenditures to a range of $5.5–$5.9 billion this year — representing a $550 million decrease from 2024 at the midpoint. According to Occidental, this improved efficiency alongside other initiatives should produce more than $1.2 billion in additional free cash flow at comparable oil prices to the previous year.
With crude now trading substantially above that reference point, actual free cash flow generation could exceed projections.
Occidental has remained proactive in managing its balance sheet obligations, announcing cash tender offers and consent solicitations for multiple senior note issues. The company expanded the total purchase cap as part of these refinancing efforts.
Board member William R. Klesse purchased 5,000 OXY shares on December 16 at $38.98 each, representing a $194,900 investment that increased his holdings to 218,913 shares.
Regal Partners Ltd revealed a newly established position of 140,000 shares worth approximately $6.62 million, positioning OXY as the firm’s 29th largest holding at 0.5% of total portfolio value.
UBS elevated its OXY price target to $55 while Piper Sandler raised its target to $54, though both maintained neutral ratings. The consensus analyst recommendation remains at Hold, with an average price target of $51.24.
OXY began trading Friday at $54.28, approaching its 52-week peak of $56.34.
