TLDR
- Shares of Samsara (IOT) rallied 15% Friday following a fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS print of $0.18 that exceeded the Street’s $0.13 forecast by five cents
- Quarterly revenue reached $444.3M, representing 28% growth versus last year and surpassing the $422.3M estimate
- Annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.9B, marking approximately 30% year-over-year expansion
- Fiscal 2027 EPS outlook of $0.65–$0.69 significantly outpaced analyst projections of around $0.33
- Several Wall Street firms maintained Buy/Outperform ratings with price targets spanning $39–$44
Connected operations platform provider Samsara (IOT) delivered compelling fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday evening, triggering an enthusiastic market response. Shares climbed 15% Friday, closing at $34.10—a welcome reversal after the stock had declined 17% year-to-date prior to the earnings announcement.
The financial performance left little room for disappointment. Quarterly revenue totaled $444.3 million, marking 28.3% growth from the comparable period last year and comfortably exceeding the analyst consensus of $422.3 million. On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share registered at $0.18, surpassing Wall Street’s $0.13 projection by five cents.
The company exited the fiscal year with annual recurring revenue of $1.9 billion, reflecting 30% year-over-year growth—a critical metric for investors evaluating the company’s ongoing expansion trajectory.
Forward Outlook Captures Attention
While the quarterly beat impressed, Samsara’s forward guidance may have generated even more excitement. The company established its fiscal 2027 EPS range at $0.65–$0.69, dramatically exceeding the Street consensus hovering around $0.33—effectively doubling analyst projections. First-quarter 2027 EPS guidance of $0.12–$0.13 similarly topped expectations.
Management communicated a fiscal 2027 revenue growth objective of 21%–22% while emphasizing the company’s artificial intelligence expansion initiatives.
Evercore ISI’s Kirk Materne maintained his Outperform rating and elevated Samsara to “top idea” status, replacing Oracle in that designation. He highlighted the company’s vertical integration as insulation against AI-related disruption—a particularly relevant consideration given recent pressure on software equities from AI concerns.
BTIG’s Nick Altmann preserved his Buy rating while adjusting his price target from $55 down to $45 to account for sector-wide multiple compression. He emphasized Samsara’s proprietary data assets as a competitive advantage for AI feature development.
Wall Street Price Target Updates
BMO Capital Markets elevated its target to $44 from $40 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler increased its target to $39 from $37 with an Overweight rating, suggesting approximately 22.8% appreciation potential from the previous close. KeyCorp adjusted its target higher to $41 from $40 with an Overweight rating.
Royal Bank of Canada maintains a $35 price objective on shares.
Across 17 covering analysts, the consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $45.69. The breakdown includes one Strong Buy rating, eleven Buy ratings, four Hold ratings, and one Sell rating.
Samsara trades within a 52-week range of $23.38 to $48.40 and currently commands a market capitalization of approximately $18.3 billion.
One consideration worth noting: insider selling activity has been notable. Co-founders John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas each divested 263,900 shares on January 6 at $34.40 per share—transactions valued at roughly $9 million apiece. During the trailing 90-day period, insiders collectively sold approximately 2.9 million shares worth $92 million in aggregate. Corporate insiders maintain ownership of about 46.5% of outstanding shares.
Institutional investors hold 96% of the company, with multiple funds expanding their positions in recent reporting periods.
The stock’s 50-day moving average currently sits at $30.39, with Friday’s $34.10 close positioning shares above that technical level.
