TLDR
- Fourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% annually to $1.87 million, falling short of the $2.33 million analyst consensus
- Analyst Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho reduced his price objective from $50 to $43 while keeping a Buy recommendation, pointing to 142% potential gains
- The company reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity in just 28 nanoseconds, potentially achieving speeds 3–5x faster than rival systems
- Cash reserves stand at roughly $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract secured from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
- Development roadmap targets over 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and more than 1,000 qubits by late 2027
Rigetti Computing delivered disappointing revenue figures in its fourth quarter, yet the company’s technological achievements paint a more optimistic picture. Here’s what investors need to know.
Revenue for Q4 2025 totaled $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline compared to the prior year period and missing the Street’s $2.33 million projection. The preceding quarter saw $2.3 million in revenue, making the sequential decline notable.
Gross profit margins also contracted, decreasing to 35% from 44% in the year-ago quarter. Management pointed to the composition of contracts rather than fundamental operational challenges as the cause.
Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the period, compared with $18.5 million one year prior. Overall operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, with research and development investments accounting for much of the increase.
The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.03 per share for the quarter, matching analyst expectations.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh adjusted his price objective downward from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. However, he maintained his Buy recommendation on the stock.
The $43 target still suggests approximately 142% potential appreciation from present trading levels. Rakesh bases his valuation on roughly 9x estimated revenue 30 months forward, incorporating an assumption that Rigetti will capture 10% of the quantum computing addressable market.
Q1 Outlook and Near-Term Contracts
Rakesh projects Q1 2026 revenue at $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% growth year-over-year. This anticipated expansion is primarily linked to Rigetti’s $5.7 million contract for Novera quantum processors.
Additionally, the company plans to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the latter half of 2026, an agreement valued at $8.4 million.
Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient capital to pursue its strategic initiatives without near-term funding concerns.
Technical Progress
Regarding hardware capabilities, Rigetti accomplished 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing an innovative adiabatic CZ technique at 28 nanoseconds. According to management, this performance level is potentially 3 to 5 times faster than alternative methodologies.
The company has successfully deployed an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture and a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration to cloud platforms.
Rigetti operates Fab One, characterized as the quantum industry’s first purpose-built and fully integrated device fabrication facility.
Strategic collaborations include working with Riverlane on error mitigation techniques and partnering with Nvidia to integrate quantum processing units with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink connectivity, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing environments.
The development timeline calls for exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. Management estimates that practical quantum advantage remains approximately three years in the future.
According to TipRanks, RGTI carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The mean analyst price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current price levels.
RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117% over the trailing twelve-month period.
