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Essential Highlights
- Circle Internet (CRCL) stock briefly hit $90 during Thursday trading before settling around $87, continuing Wednesday’s impressive ~30% earnings-driven surge
- Q4 2025 earnings of $0.43 per share beat Wall Street consensus estimates of $0.35; quarterly revenue hit $770 million, representing 77% year-over-year growth
- Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating with a $190 price target, calling the results a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho upgraded its price target to $90 from $77 while keeping a Neutral rating, noting potential headwinds from interest-rate cuts
- William Blair and Clear Street both issued positive commentary; Clear Street raised its target to $92 from $85
Shares of Circle Internet Group briefly surpassed $90 on Thursday trading before settling near $87.
This continuation built upon Wednesday’s remarkable 30% surge following the release of impressive fourth-quarter financial data.
Q4 2025 Financial Results
Circle reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.43, beating analyst consensus of $0.35 by approximately 23%. Revenue reached $770 million, representing a 77% year-over-year increase.
The impressive quarterly results triggered reactions from several Wall Street firms, each providing unique insights into the company’s future prospects.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating with a $190 price target. Analysts at the firm described the quarter as demonstrating a “clear divergence from crypto,” emphasizing improved transaction revenue and growing blockchain rewards from Circle’s super validator role on the Canton network.
One key data point from Bernstein: USDC held directly on Circle’s platform reached 17% of total supply in Q4, up from 14% in Q3.
Management guidance suggests USDC circulation could grow at a 40% compound annual growth rate, with additional revenue sources potentially hitting $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.
Diverse Analyst Viewpoints
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their price target to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
They pointed to prediction platforms like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” generating significant transaction volume that supports both revenue and reserve assets. Management cited Polymarket as a major contributor to recent USDC growth.
Mizuho also noted “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents using internet-native currency — as a potential future driver of USDC adoption, though current transaction volumes remain small.
However, the firm warned that potential interest-rate cuts present a risk. Reserve income still comprises the bulk of Circle’s revenue, meaning rate reductions would adversely affect this segment.
More Wall Street Commentary
William Blair kept its Outperform rating and suggested long-term investors consider initiating positions.
The firm believes USDC is positioned to become the dominant commerce-focused stablecoin, backed by full fiat reserves, regulatory compliance, and network effects. William Blair noted an approximately $20 trillion cross-border B2B payments market as the long-term opportunity, while acknowledging uncertainty around full market capture.
Wall Street consensus projects 62% revenue growth for Circle in the current fiscal year.
Clear Street raised its price target to $92 from $85 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing improved fundamentals after the “strong” quarterly performance.
Circle currently trades around $81.88 with a market cap of $14.45 billion, though shares are still down roughly 51% over the past six months.
Based on InvestingPro data, the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein highlighted Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payment features as critical product development areas for 2026.
