Key Takeaways
- Snowflake’s Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release is scheduled for after the bell on February 25
- Options market implies approximately 13% volatility following the earnings announcement
- Major firms including TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and Citi reduced targets to $270 while maintaining Buy recommendations
- The stock has declined 21.4% since the start of the year amid SaaS sector concerns over AI-driven disruption
- A $200 million strategic partnership with OpenAI was announced on February 2
Investors are closely monitoring Snowflake (SNOW) as the company prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Wednesday, February 25, following the market close.
The year 2026 hasn’t been kind to the data cloud platform provider, with shares tumbling 21.4% year-to-date. The decline follows a steep 30% drop after third-quarter results, where a modest earnings beat failed to calm investor anxiety about artificial intelligence’s potential impact on software companies.
Analyst consensus calls for adjusted earnings per share of $0.27 in Q4, representing a decline from the $0.30 reported in the year-ago quarter. On the revenue front, expectations point to $1.26 billion, marking a 27.8% year-over-year increase.
It’s worth noting that Snowflake has exceeded earnings estimates in seven out of the past eight reporting periods — establishing a track record that makes further beats anticipated rather than surprising.
The options market is signaling significant volatility, with implied movement of approximately 12.79% in either direction after results are announced. This expectation is nearly twice the stock’s typical post-earnings swing of 6.7% over the previous four quarters.
Clearly, market participants are anticipating a meaningful reaction.
Wall Street Adjusts Price Targets
Three prominent Wall Street analysts recently reduced their price objectives, converging on an identical $270 target.
TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood maintained his Buy recommendation while citing encouraging indicators such as expanding user metrics, increasing data volumes, workload migration trends, and growing AI inference usage. Wood emphasized that Snowflake is demonstrating resilience against the AI disruption concerns plaguing other software companies.
Morgan Stanley’s Sanjit Singh similarly retained his Buy stance with a $270 price target. His channel checks revealed consistent demand despite widespread selling pressure in the SaaS sector, and he characterized current levels as an attractive entry opportunity for 2026. Singh also identified Elastic (ESTC) as another compelling pre-earnings opportunity alongside Snowflake.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke dropped his target from $300 to $270, attributing the adjustment to valuation compression throughout the software industry. Radke argued that the 30% post-Q3 selloff was excessive and described Snowflake’s consumption-based business approach as “one of the stronger AI-proof consumption business models” in the market.
Strategic OpenAI Collaboration
Snowflake unveiled a significant multi-year partnership with OpenAI on February 2, worth $200 million. This collaboration provides Snowflake’s 12,600 enterprise customers worldwide with integrated access to OpenAI’s advanced models through Cortex AI, the company’s proprietary platform for generative AI and machine learning capabilities.
The strategic arrangement encompasses implementations across Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform.
According to TipRanks, the analyst consensus on SNOW stands at Strong Buy, supported by 31 Buy ratings and 3 Hold ratings. The average price target of $269.86 suggests potential upside of approximately 56.4% from current trading levels.
The company’s Q4 financial results will be released after the closing bell on Wednesday, February 25.
