Key Highlights
- XRP has climbed approximately 30% from its February bottom at $1.11, now hovering around $1.41
- Crypto analyst MilkybullCrypto projects XRP could reach $12 based on a decade-long ascending channel pattern
- Whale deposits to Binance have declined to 736 million XRP, marking the lowest level in four years compared to 2.6 billion in March
- Spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States attracted $81.6 million throughout April, adding $28.17 million in May’s opening week
- Loss of support at $1.33 could trigger a decline toward $0.93, representing approximately 30% downside
XRP has rebounded approximately 30% since touching February lows around $1.11, with technical analysts identifying potential for a significant rally toward $12 driven by chart formations and evolving blockchain metrics.
Crypto analyst MilkybullCrypto published a monthly timeframe chart illustrating XRP’s movement within an ascending channel structure established in 2014. The asset currently trades near the channel’s lower boundary, a region spanning $1.30 to $1.40 that has historically served as a foundation for substantial upward movements. According to MilkybullCrypto, XRP is “probably going to $12,” a level that corresponds with the channel’s median line.
The monthly Relative Strength Index for XRP’s has retreated to the 40–45 zone, a threshold that has frequently preceded significant bullish price action. Market analyst JD highlighted this area as a potential indicator of a cycle low.
JD’s bi-weekly chart analysis reveals XRP completing a breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle formation and currently retesting that breakout region. His price projection encompasses a target range spanning $8 to $14.
Blockchain Data Reveals Diminishing Whale Distribution
On-chain metrics strengthen the bullish narrative. According to CryptoQuant analytics, XRP whale transfers to Binance have decreased to 736 million tokens, down sharply from 2.6 billion recorded in early March. This represents the lowest reading in four years.
Decreasing exchange deposits from large holders generally indicates reduced selling intentions. Previous instances of comparable declines have preceded supply constraints that catalyzed upward price momentum.
Analyst Dom observed that despite approximately $35 million worth of XRP being distributed on Binance during the previous seven days, market participants consistently placed fresh buy orders to absorb the selling pressure. Dom suggested that a breakout above $1.47, particularly if accompanied by Bitcoin strength, could initiate a substantial rally. His 12-hour chart identifies high-volume targets near $1.80 and $2.10.
Technical analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) shared on X that with XRP’s apex formation nearing completion in May, “a decisive break of this structure is likely around the corner.” He emphasized that even a temporary downturn toward the $0.90–$0.70 zone would not alter the overall bullish trajectory, characterizing the macro trend as continuing upward.
Institutional Capital Through ETFs Strengthens Foundation
U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds captured $81.6 million in net capital inflows throughout April, marking their most robust monthly performance in 2026. The initial week of May contributed an additional $28.17 million. Cumulative net assets across XRP ETF products currently total $1.43 billion. Traditional finance institution UBS has also allocated capital to the Grayscale XRP ETF.
Rakuten Wallet announced XRP integration in Japan, broadening the token’s accessibility in one of cryptocurrency’s most significant retail markets.
XRP is presently exchanging hands near $1.41, with a 24-hour trading band spanning $1.40 to $1.46.
