Key Takeaways
- Ryanair received an upgrade to “outperform” from Evercore ISI, with a new price target of $80, up from $75
- Among all airlines covered by Evercore, only Ryanair saw increased earnings projections for 2026 and 2027
- Jet fuel crack spreads have surged to 44% of barrel prices — substantially above the 20-25% historical norm
- Major U.S. carriers including United, Delta, and American Airlines faced significant EPS forecast reductions
- Discounted cash flow modeling indicates Ryanair’s fair value at €30.34 per share compared to its recent €26.61 close, representing a 12.3% undervaluation
Evercore ISI boosted its rating on Ryanair Holdings this Thursday, elevating the stock from “In Line” to “outperform” status while increasing the price objective to $80 from the previous $75.
The upgrade was justified by Ryanair’s robust €1 billion positive cash position and a notable 15% decline from peak levels reached in January.
This positive adjustment arrived as Evercore simultaneously reduced forecasts for the majority of airlines under its research umbrella. Jet fuel crack spreads have exploded to 44% of the complete Gulf Coast barrel valuation — significantly exceeding the typical 20-25% long-term benchmark.
Evercore’s analyst Duane Pfennigwerth characterized this as a 2.8-sigma statistical anomaly, drawing parallels to market disruptions witnessed in 2008 and during the initial phases of the Ukraine conflict.
Spot jet fuel prices were operating roughly 53% higher than the first quarter average through March 11. With an estimated two-week delay in fuel cost impacts, Evercore projects Q1 2026 Gulf Coast jet fuel reaching $2.40 per gallon.
Ryanair’s earnings forecast for 2026 was increased to $4.77 from $4.65, while the 2027 projection climbed to $5.75 from $5.65. No other airline in the coverage universe received upward adjustments.
Competitors Face Severe Cuts
The divergence between Ryanair and its competitors was dramatic. United Airlines experienced a 2026 EPS forecast collapse to $8.60 from $13. Delta’s estimate fell to $5.70 from $7, while American Airlines plummeted to -$0.36 from $2.
Ryanair maintains a 2026 net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio of -0.4x, representing the healthiest balance sheet within Evercore’s airline coverage. By comparison, JetBlue registers 13.7x and American shows 7.2x.
Evercore’s projections generally trend below Wall Street consensus for most carriers. The firm’s $8.60 United forecast contrasts with Street expectations of $12.91. Delta’s $5.70 estimate falls short of the $6.99 consensus. For Ryanair, Evercore’s $5.52 full-year 2026 projection closely aligns with the $5.55 consensus view.
Despite these challenges, travel demand across the aviation sector remains robust. Evercore’s proprietary Airlines Survey increased 6.2 points to 70.0 in early March, with international travel metrics surging from 62.5 to 75.
Passenger volumes for the period ending March 10 demonstrated 2% year-over-year growth and stood 5% above 2019 baseline levels.
Valuation Analysis
A discounted cash flow assessment conducted by Simply Wall St values Ryanair’s intrinsic worth at €30.34 per share. With the stock’s recent closing price at €26.61, this suggests a 12.3% undervaluation relative to fundamental value.
Ryanair presently commands a P/E multiple of 12.47x. This valuation exceeds the Airlines industry median of 8.66x while remaining below the peer group average of 17.24x.
The shares have declined 10.4% year-to-date and retreated 5.6% over the trailing 30-day period. Looking at longer timeframes, the stock maintains gains of 31.1% over one year and an impressive 96.1% advance over three years.
Evercore’s full-year 2026 EPS projection of $5.52 for Ryanair closely matches the $5.55 Street consensus — representing a notable convergence of opinion within an airline coverage universe otherwise characterized by widespread downward revisions.
