Key Findings
- Recent Ipsos research involving 2,363 U.S. adults reveals 61% classify prediction markets as gambling, with merely 8% categorizing them as investment vehicles
- A mere 9% of survey participants express confidence in prediction markets’ ability to prevent insider trading
- Among Americans familiar with these platforms, 91% characterize event contracts as carrying significant financial risk
- A scant 4% of U.S. adults believe prediction markets contribute positively to society
- Males between ages 18-24 demonstrate significantly higher engagement with prediction and wagering platforms compared to broader demographics
Most U.S. adults classify prediction markets as gambling activities rather than investment opportunities, based on recent research from the American Institute for Boys and Men.
The Ipsos research, commissioned by AIBM, surveyed a nationally representative group of 2,363 adults. The study also incorporated an additional sample of 447 males ranging from 18 to 24 years old.
The findings were unambiguous. Approximately 61% of participants characterized prediction markets as gambling activities. A minimal 8% regarded them as investment platforms.
AIBM initiated this research to examine how prediction markets integrate within America’s wider gambling ecosystem. The organization sought empirical evidence regarding public sentiment toward these emerging platforms.
Public Trust in Platform Protections Remains Minimal
The research uncovered substantial doubt regarding corruption prevention across financial platforms. A mere 9% of all participants expressed confidence that prediction markets could effectively prevent individuals possessing insider information from gaining unfair advantages.
This figure increased to 27% among active prediction market participants. However, even within this user base, 70% indicated they lacked complete confidence that insider trading was being adequately prevented.
Online sports wagering platforms achieved marginally better results at 13% confidence. Traditional stock markets received the highest rating at 30%, though AIBM researchers considered this surprisingly low.
AIBM policy director Jonathan Cohen noted the stock market served as a benchmark for comparison. He suggested the consistently low confidence levels might indicate users have resigned themselves to accepting insider activity as unavoidable.
General public awareness of prediction markets remains limited. However, among those familiar with these platforms, 91% view event contracts as financially hazardous. This percentage decreases moderately to 88% among younger males.
Former gambling industry journalist turned responsible gambling advocate Jessica Wellman highlighted the disconnect between industry marketing messages and actual public comprehension of these platforms.
Younger Males Dominate Platform Engagement
Overall prediction market participation remains modest, though concentrated heavily among younger male demographics. Within the preceding six months, 26% of males aged 18 to 24 reported engaging with at least one sports wagering, daily fantasy, prediction market, or related gambling platform.
This contrasts sharply with just 14% of the general population during the identical timeframe.
Few Americans perceive prediction markets as socially beneficial. Only 4% of all survey participants characterized them as positive for society. Among younger males, this metric reached 7%.
Three percent of respondents considered gambling broadly and online sports wagering as societally beneficial.
Regarding regulatory approaches, most Americans favored regulating prediction markets similarly to gambling (59%) or investments (52%). Approximately 66% opposed leaving them completely unregulated. Roughly 25% supported prohibiting them entirely.
Cohen emphasized insufficient data exists regarding actual platform users and their motivations. He noted the connections between prediction market participants, sportsbook users, and offshore gambling platform users remain poorly understood.
AIBM concluded its analysis with several unresolved questions requiring additional investigation. These encompass identifying prediction market users, documenting potential harms, and determining whether these platforms create new entry points into gambling behaviors for young males.
The organization emphasized that advocates, media professionals, and policymakers have an opportunity to influence public perception and establish regulatory structures before widespread adoption occurs. Cohen stressed the dominant narrative surrounding prediction markets remains largely undeveloped.
