Key Takeaways
- Research from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates cryptocurrency outperforms traditional assets in two-month periods following worldwide disruptions
- Following the 2025 tariff declaration by Trump, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% gain and the S&P 500’s 4% increase
- Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has advanced 2.2% while gold dropped 11% and the S&P 500 declined 4.4%
- Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $1.32 billion during March as gold ETFs experienced $2.92 billion in withdrawals
- Financial analyst James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately exceed gold ETFs in total assets
Research conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin typically delivers superior gains compared to gold and the S&P 500 during 60-day periods following significant worldwide disruptions.
The analysis, spearheaded by Rony Szuster, who serves as research director at Mercado Bitcoin, examined two-month timeframes after various economic and political upheavals, ranging from the coronavirus pandemic to trade war intensifications.
Following the sweeping tariff measures announced by the Trump administration in April 2025, Bitcoin surged an impressive 24% during the subsequent two months. In comparison, gold appreciated 8% while the S&P 500 managed only a modest 4% advance during the identical period.
This trend emerged similarly during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020. Bitcoin climbed 21%, substantially outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.
Szuster cautioned against premature assessments of Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.
He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate holdings rapidly during turbulent periods to obtain liquidity, which can temporarily depress even traditionally defensive assets.
Cryptocurrency Maintains Strength Amid Middle East Tensions
This performance pattern is currently repeating during the ongoing U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, climbing from around $65,800 to $67,300.
Gold, conventionally regarded as a defensive investment, has declined roughly 11% during this same timeframe. The S&P 500 has tumbled 4.4%, marking its most significant monthly retreat since 2022.
Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin ranked as the top-performing asset throughout the previous ten years, notwithstanding its notorious volatility.
Investment Flows Shift From Gold to Bitcoin Products
ETF specialist James Seyffart stated during an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds may ultimately eclipse gold ETFs in aggregate assets managed.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He highlighted Bitcoin’s functions as digital gold, value preservation, portfolio diversification tool, and growth opportunity.
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he continued.
Current investment flow statistics support this changing investor preference. Throughout March, gold ETFs based in the United States registered net withdrawals totaling $2.92 billion. During this identical timeframe, US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $1.32 billion in net contributions.
The nation’s largest gold ETF experienced a single-day outflow of $3 billion on March 4, representing the biggest one-day redemption in over 24 months.
Both commodities have declined during the last 30 days. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8% while gold has fallen around 8.25%, indicating similar directional movement despite contrasting ETF activity.
In December 2025, Chris Kuiper, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated periods of relative outperformance.
