Key Highlights
- US equity futures advanced Tuesday following reports that Trump administration may conclude Iran military operations without securing full Strait of Hormuz access
- Dow Jones futures climbed 1%, S&P 500 contracts increased 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.8%
- Major indices heading toward worst quarterly performance since 2022
- WTI crude oil maintained position above $100 per barrel threshold
- Market participants anticipate March consumer confidence figures and February jobs opening data
Equity futures across US markets rallied during Tuesday’s pre-market session following reports indicating President Trump’s potential willingness to conclude military operations in Iran without requiring complete access through the Strait of Hormuz.
Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped approximately 459 points, representing a 1% increase. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 0.8%.
The positive momentum followed a late Monday Wall Street Journal article revealing that Trump and senior advisors had determined that operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz would prolong the military engagement beyond the administration’s desired timeframe of four to six weeks.
In a Tuesday morning Truth Social post, Trump appeared to indicate a conclusion to operations. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” the president stated. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Macro strategist Henry Allen from Deutsche Bank noted the Wall Street Journal article had “raised hopes that the current phase of the conflict will wind down soon,” observing that “the market tone has become decidedly more positive overnight.”
Tuesday marks the conclusion of Q1 trading. The three primary indices are tracking toward their weakest quarterly results since 2022, based on Dow Jones Market Data analysis.
All major benchmarks declined Monday, surrendering earlier session gains as market participants expressed concerns regarding continued Middle East tensions.
Market sentiment had deteriorated significantly entering Tuesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index surged past 30 Monday, indicating heightened trader apprehension.
Crude Prices Maintain Elevated Levels Despite Diplomatic Progress
Oil prices held at elevated levels despite improving diplomatic signals. West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. During Tuesday’s early session, WTI contracts added another 0.4% to reach $103.28 per barrel. Brent crude traded flat at $107.38.
Equities have found it challenging to sustain rallies in recent sessions when crude prices remain elevated, continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
Gold futures increased 0.5% to $4,581 per ounce during early trading hours. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield decreased one basis point to 4.33%. The US dollar index remained unchanged against major global currencies.
Messaging from the White House has shown inconsistency. While certain administration officials have indicated diplomatic advancement, Trump separately raised the possibility of US seizure of Iranian oil assets.
Tuesday Economic Releases on Deck
Market participants are positioned for incoming economic indicators scheduled for Tuesday release. The March consumer confidence index and February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results are anticipated. These publications should provide enhanced clarity regarding US economic conditions entering the second quarter.
The joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran reached its fifth week as of Tuesday.
