TLDR
- Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings announcement scheduled for March 5, 2026
- Year-to-date gains of 13.6% following a roughly 6% decline in 2025
- Wall Street projects $4.55 EPS versus $4.02 last year, with revenue forecasted at $69.25 billion
- Strong Buy rating from analysts with $1,081.57 average target price
- Current forward P/E ratio of 49.6 significantly exceeds sector median of 18.9
The warehouse retail giant Costco prepares to unveil its fiscal Q2 results on March 5 amid impressive market momentum.
Following approximately 6% losses throughout 2025, COST shares have rebounded vigorously — climbing 13.6% during the opening months of 2026. This reversal has captured significant attention from market analysts.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Wall Street expects second-quarter earnings to reach $4.55 per share, marking a substantial improvement from the $4.02 reported in last year’s comparable quarter. Revenue projections stand at $69.25 billion, representing a 10% year-over-year increase.
Recent sales figures paint an optimistic picture heading into the earnings announcement. Net sales for January totaled approximately $21 billion, reflecting 9.3% growth versus the prior-year period.
Throughout the initial 22 weeks of this fiscal year, the retailer achieved 8.5% sales growth compared to last year. Comparable store sales have demonstrated consistent expansion across all geographic markets.
The digital channel has emerged as a particularly strong performer. E-commerce revenue has expanded at double-digit rates, though any deceleration in this segment could trigger investor concern.
Membership expansion represents another critical metric worth monitoring. Growing membership rolls — partially fueled by inflation driving consumers toward value-oriented retailers — have provided consistent support. The proprietary Kirkland Signature brand remains a key differentiator, strengthening customer retention and defending market position.
Analyst Views
Bank of America’s Christopher Nardone reaffirmed his Buy recommendation on COST before the earnings release, establishing a $1,185 price objective. His thesis emphasizes Costco’s broad demographic appeal — maintaining strength among affluent consumers while the value proposition attracts budget-conscious shoppers.
Citi analyst Steven Zaccone adopted a more reserved position, keeping his Hold rating while modestly increasing his target from $990 to $1,000.
The broader Street consensus registers as Strong Buy, supported by 19 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and a single Sell. The mean price objective of $1,081.57 suggests approximately 7% appreciation potential from present levels. The most bullish target stands at $1,205, implying nearly 20% upside.
The Valuation Question
Costco’s decade-long total return of 662% has substantially outperformed the S&P 500 by more than twofold. The company has delivered 9.3% compound annual revenue growth over the past five years without a single down year.
This exceptional performance commands a premium valuation. COST currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 49.6, dramatically above the sector median of 18.9. The trailing P/E stands at 53.6 — approximately 15% higher than Nvidia’s valuation.
For certain investors, this premium appears excessive. Any disappointment in comparable sales metrics or weaker-than-expected membership additions could trigger sharp downside.
First-quarter 2026 net sales totaled $66 billion. The retailer’s business model — purchasing massive volumes of a curated product selection — provides substantial supplier negotiating leverage and maintains competitive pricing for members.
