Key Takeaways
- SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci maintains that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains intact despite growing institutional participation
- Veteran investors and long-term holders liquidated positions around the $100,000 psychological threshold, creating substantial downward pressure that pushed BTC from $126,000 to $60,000
- While institutional capital inflows and exchange-traded funds have dampened price swings, they haven’t fundamentally altered the market’s cyclical nature
- Scaramucci anticipates continued volatility throughout 2026, with a fresh bullish phase emerging in the final quarter
- The S&P 500 declined 1.3% and breached its 200-day moving average, prompting warnings that Bitcoin could tumble 50% if correlation with equities persists
Anthony Scaramucci, the managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, maintains that Bitcoin is experiencing a typical four-year cycle correction and anticipates a price recovery beginning in late 2026.
During an appearance on Scott Melker’s “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast, Scaramucci outlined his perspective on the current market dynamics. He identified profit-taking activity around the $100,000 mark as a primary catalyst behind the recent price decline.
Established Bitcoin holders and early adopters viewed the six-figure price level as a strategic point to realize gains. This coordinated selling activity created significant downward momentum despite concurrent institutional capital entering the market.
Bitcoin reached a peak near $126,000 before experiencing a sharp correction to $60,000. This downturn shattered widespread market predictions of a rally to $150,000 during 2025.
According to Scaramucci, those optimistic forecasts were driven by Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency-friendly policies and improved regulatory conditions in the United States. However, he emphasized that markets frequently defy consensus expectations.
He referenced early 2023 as a compelling illustration. Bitcoin began its recovery in January 2023 precisely when investor confidence was at rock bottom following the FTX exchange implosion in November 2022.
“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again,” Scaramucci said.
Institutional Capital Modified But Didn’t Eliminate the Cyclical Pattern
Scaramucci explained that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and institutional investment have smoothed volatility but haven’t destroyed the fundamental cycle. While price fluctuations are more moderate, the core pattern persists.
He characterized the cycle as partially driven by investor psychology. Market participants who accept the four-year framework make trading decisions based on it, which consequently validates and perpetuates the pattern.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2 billion in net inflows during the past four weeks, marking the most sustained period of positive flows in 2026.
Bitcoin Tracking Equity Market Weakness
Bitcoin dropped beneath $69,000 over the weekend as escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continued pressuring risk-sensitive assets. The Iran situation has now extended into its third week, creating headwinds for global financial markets.
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday, closing beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time in ten months. Market technicians closely monitor this indicator as a signal of longer-term directional trends in equities.
Several market observers now suggest Bitcoin could experience an additional 50% decline in 2026 if its correlation with the S&P 500 remains elevated.
Scaramucci characterized the present correction as an ordinary pullback consistent with historical cycles. He projects continued price choppiness throughout most of 2026 before a new bullish phase commences in the fourth quarter.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $2 billion in total inflows over the preceding four-week period.
