Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD’s price target from $100 to $90 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
- Compass Point lowered its forecast from $127 to $108, retaining a Buy stance
- March trading data revealed decelerating activity in equities, options, and cryptocurrency segments
- Shares have declined 52% in the last half-year and 38% since the start of 2025
- The company’s banking segment has accumulated over $1.5 billion in customer deposits
Robinhood Markets is navigating choppy waters this week as several Wall Street firms downgraded their price expectations following the release of disappointing March trading activity.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro revised his price objective downward from $100 to $90, though he maintained a bullish Buy rating. Todaro cited decelerating momentum across virtually all of the trading platform’s core business lines.
“We view HOOD as the most advanced financial services platform on its journey to becoming a comprehensive financial super app, however the latest volume data and reduced net interest income indicate a more subdued operating environment,” Todaro stated in his research note.
The March performance figures, published on March 30, revealed equity notional trading volumes of approximately $196 billion. The platform processed 187 million options contracts, while cryptocurrency notional volumes reached $16 billion.
Todaro revised his equity and options volume projections downward for the first quarter of 2026, while maintaining his cryptocurrency forecasts unchanged, noting that anticipated declines were already incorporated into previous models. He also trimmed revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027, attributing the adjustment to anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.
His updated $90 target price reflects a 27-times multiple on Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA projection.
This adjustment came just one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak made an even more aggressive cut, slashing his target from $115 to $81 — representing a nearly 30% reduction. Chubak’s revision was triggered by declining cryptocurrency transaction revenue alongside broader digital asset market weakness.
Compass Point Joins Downward Revision Trend
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly adjusted his outlook on Wednesday, bringing his price target down from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. Engel’s financial models anticipate first-quarter revenue coming in 9% below Wall Street consensus estimates, with shortfalls expected across all three major business divisions.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically weakens following five to six consecutive months of market volatility, noting that most retail-preferred equities have trended lower since early October.
He drew parallels to April 2025, when analysts were broadly reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel suggested that any market rebound could position Robinhood as a primary beneficiary, particularly given the robust 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have plummeted 52% during the past six-month period and currently trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock maintains a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.14 with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro data indicates the shares are trading above fair value at present levels.
Banking Operations Provide Positive Counterbalance
Despite the trading headwinds, not all indicators are negative. Robinhood’s banking arm has surpassed $1.5 billion in total deposits, serving nearly 100,000 funded accounts — representing approximately 50% deposit growth over the recent reporting period.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price objective from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm continues to forecast 25% earnings-per-share expansion through 2026 and projects a 30% compound annual revenue growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies recently launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 price target, highlighting potential catalysts from expanding global retail market participation and the platform’s diversified product portfolio.
According to TipRanks data, HOOD carries a Strong Buy consensus rating derived from 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from current trading levels. The most optimistic analyst forecast sits at $147.
The company’s complete first-quarter financial results are scheduled for release in May.
