Key Highlights
- March 2026 saw Polymarket achieve 45.3 million visits, exceeding its November 2024 peak of 40 million by 13%
- Kalshi’s March traffic hit 13 million visits, representing nearly 100% growth from November 2024 figures
- Year-over-year monthly traffic surged approximately 400% for Polymarket and 320% for Kalshi
- The single-day traffic record remains November 5, 2024 (Election Day) for both services
- Conflict-related prediction markets have generated significant engagement while raising ethical questions
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi experienced unprecedented traffic volumes in March 2026, surpassing benchmarks established during the heated 2024 presidential election season.
Similarweb data indicates Polymarket attracted 45.3 million combined desktop and mobile visits throughout March. This marks approximately 13% growth compared to the platform’s previous high of 40 million visits recorded in November 2024.
Meanwhile, Kalshi demonstrated even more dramatic proportional expansion. The platform captured 13 million visits during March, approaching double its November 2024 total of 7.1 million visits.
Conflict-Related Markets Fuel Platform Expansion
The dramatic increase stems largely from prediction markets focused on the Iran situation. These geopolitically-oriented markets have captured substantial attention from participants seeking to speculate on international developments.
Year-over-year comparisons reveal Polymarket’s monthly visitor count has increased roughly 400%. Kalshi has experienced approximately 320% growth across the same timeframe.
While March set monthly records, the single-day traffic champion remains Election Day 2024. That November date brought 8.4 million visitors to Polymarket and 1.9 million to Kalshi.
Following the presidential election, both platforms experienced significant traffic declines. However, engagement rebounded forcefully in early 2026 as Middle East tensions intensified.
The Iran-focused betting activity has generated significant scrutiny. The New York Times documented that substantial wagers appeared on Polymarket just one day before U.S. and Israeli forces conducted strikes against Iran on February 28.
These positions, frequently exceeding $1,000 individually, anticipated American military action against Iran within 24 hours. The suspicious timing prompted speculation about potential insider information among certain participants.
Polymarket declined to address the Times’ inquiries regarding this pattern. The company stated on its platform that its Middle East conflict forecasts provide “particularly invaluable” insights during “gut-wrenching times.”
Regulatory Pressure and Ethical Debates Intensify
Kalshi suspended a high-profile market asking “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” after accumulating over $54 million in wagers. The platform withheld settlements, citing policies against markets “directly tied to death,” as reported by the Washington Post.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees Kalshi’s operations, prohibits trading on warfare and mortality. Communications director Elisabeth Diana informed the Times that profiting from death predictions is “not allowed on Kalshi, and that’s a good thing.”
Despite these restrictions, Kalshi maintains various Iran-focused markets, including speculation on potential U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Polymarket encountered renewed criticism this past weekend for hosting a market predicting when a missing American pilot, whose aircraft was downed over Iran, would be located. Representative Seth Moulton described the wager as “DISGUSTING” in a social media post on X.
The platform responded by stating it “took this market down immediately” and acknowledged it “should not have been posted.” Polymarket characterized the market as failing to “meet our integrity standards.”
Operating predominantly internationally, Polymarket avoids the CFTC oversight that constrains Kalshi. The platform maintains multiple Iran war markets, including predictions about potential U.S. ground troop deployment and conflict duration. Each market features disclaimers asserting prediction markets are “invaluable.”
