TLDR
- Oracle (ORCL) received an upgrade to Outperform from Oppenheimer on Wednesday, with analysts setting a $185 price target
- Shares have plummeted from September’s peak of $328.33 to approximately $149, resulting in valuation compression of over 50%
- Lead analyst Brian Schwartz anticipates EPS could potentially double or triple by the close of fiscal 2030
- OpenAI’s expansion to over 800M weekly active users and potential $100B capital raise are mitigating customer reliability concerns
- The software giant intends to secure $45B–$50B through debt offerings to support an anticipated $330B capex requirement through fiscal 2030
Oracle (ORCL) received a significant endorsement from Wall Street analysts on Wednesday. Oppenheimer elevated the enterprise software giant to Outperform from its previous Perform rating while establishing a $185 price objective.
Brian Schwartz, the analyst spearheading this recommendation, contends that the stock’s recent decline has created an appealing entry point for investors willing to embrace the risk.
Following the upgrade announcement, ORCL shares climbed approximately 4% during premarket trading, reaching roughly $149.45. Despite this uptick, the stock remains substantially below its historic zenith.
The shares reached their apex at $328.33 on September 10, 2025. This milestone followed Oracle’s disclosure of a massive $300 billion increase in deferred revenue from customer contracts, with a significant portion linked to OpenAI.
The ensuing months witnessed a persistent downturn. A combination of factors—including widespread technology sector weakness, uncertainty surrounding Oracle’s capital requirements, and doubts about OpenAI’s financial stability—pressured the stock lower.
The valuation contraction has been dramatic. ORCL currently commands roughly 19 times projected earnings, a steep decline from the 40+ multiple it carried last September.
“Multiples can always go lower,” Schwartz acknowledged in his research note. However, he believes the substantial selloff “limits the magnitude of the downside at current levels.”
OpenAI Risk Easing
A significant component of the bearish narrative centered on Oracle’s concentrated reliance on OpenAI as a critical customer. These worries are beginning to dissipate.
OpenAI’s user engagement has reaccelerated dramatically, surpassing 800 million weekly active users in early February. Additionally, the AI company is reportedly assembling its inaugural enterprise sales organization and successfully securing contracts.
OpenAI is purportedly nearing completion of a massive $100 billion fundraising initiative. This substantial capital infusion strengthens confidence in the company’s ability to fulfill its contractual commitments to Oracle.
Oppenheimer also highlighted TikTok as another significant customer win that helps diversify Oracle’s counterparty risk profile.
Financing Progress
Oracle’s second major challenge involves securing funding for its ambitious infrastructure buildout. Oppenheimer’s analysis suggests the company requires approximately $330 billion in capital investments extending through fiscal 2030.
Oracle addressed this concern partially earlier this month by unveiling plans to issue between $45 billion and $50 billion in corporate bonds.
This strategic financing maneuver directly enables Oracle Cloud Infrastructure expansion, according to Schwartz and his research team.
Even under Oppenheimer’s conservative scenario—which applies a 25% reduction to management’s revenue projections—the firm forecasts EPS more than doubling by fiscal 2030. Under their optimistic case, which assumes only a 10% haircut to guidance, earnings per share could nearly triple.
Schwartz characterized Oracle as a premier EPS growth compounder within the large-cap universe for the remainder of this decade.
The upgrade represents what analysts describe as a “contrarian bet.” Despite the significant price decline, Oracle remains notably underowned by institutional money managers, the research team observed.
Nevertheless, Wall Street consensus already skews positive. Among 45 analysts monitored by FactSet, 78% assign Buy-equivalent ratings to ORCL—an increase from 67% when shares peaked in September.
D.A. Davidson executed a comparable move two weeks earlier, elevating Oracle to Buy from Hold while establishing a $180 price objective.
Schwartz candidly acknowledged the timing risk, noting the recommendation “may prove early” and describing ORCL as a “show me stock” requiring consistent operational execution to convert skeptical investors.
