TLDR
- Nvidia shares have declined approximately 3% following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 27
- Jim Cramer suggests the war’s effect on NVDA is difficult to measure, but core demand dynamics stay intact
- Wells Fargo believes Nvidia’s $1T data center revenue projection for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs might be understated
- Analyst Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo projects 15–20%+ potential increase above 2026–2027 data center consensus figures
- Major cloud service providers plan to roll out approximately 22GW and 25GW of AI infrastructure in 2026 and 2027
Shares of Nvidia have experienced a roughly 3% pullback since tensions escalated with Iran starting February 27, leaving market participants questioning how much of the decline stems from geopolitical concerns versus other factors.
During Thursday’s “Mad Money” episode, CNBC’s Jim Cramer dissected the situation, offering viewers a framework for assessing Nvidia’s current position. His assessment: the recent weakness isn’t entirely attributable to wartime anxiety, and the company’s underlying business case remains solid.
“Nvidia is a big part of the stock market itself and so it’s the easiest stock in the world to trade,” Cramer said. “I think it’s going down because it is so easy to get back in at a lower level.”
With President Trump postponing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, market uncertainty has intensified. Cramer emphasized that predicting when hostilities might conclude is virtually impossible.
Interest rates also factor in. Higher rates could slow the data center buildout by raising borrowing costs. But Cramer added: “If the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you’ll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia.”
From a supply perspective, the technology sector faces shortages in both computing power and memory capacity, which means appetite for Nvidia’s processors is really being limited by financial considerations rather than weak interest.
“Everything you use Nvidia for is considered mission critical,” Cramer said, brushing off concerns about energy costs at data centers. Nvidia’s facilities run mostly on domestic natural gas, which has “barely budged.”
Cramer also pointed out that sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf region have contributed capital to data center development. While questions exist about whether this funding stream might disappear, his visit to Nvidia’s GTC conference last week left him convinced that demand remains “incredibly strong.”
His bottom line: while he’s not aggressively bullish, if he had to pick between buying early or missing the rebound, he’d lean toward accumulating shares now. “You’re ultimately being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you’d normally expect.”
Wells Fargo Projects Revenue Exceeding Nvidia’s Own Estimates
In a separate analysis, Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers indicated Thursday that Nvidia’s internal $1T data center revenue projection — spanning its Blackwell and Rubin GPU product lines through 2027 — may prove conservative.
Rakers maintains an Overweight rating with a $265 price objective on NVDA and identifies potential upside of 15–20%+ compared to Wall Street’s consensus projections for 2026–2027 data center revenues.
His calculation rests on this foundation: the leading five cloud infrastructure companies are anticipated to install approximately 22 gigawatts of AI computing capacity in 2026 and 25 gigawatts in 2027. Such deployment volumes suggest substantially higher Nvidia revenues than current analyst models reflect.
“From this, we present a pluggable model implying ~$120B+ of NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 vs. consensus estimates,” Rakers wrote.
Analyzing the $1T Revenue Pipeline
From the disclosed $1T+ pipeline covering Blackwell and Rubin architectures, Wells Fargo calculates that approximately $840B should materialize during 2026 and 2027. By January 2026, roughly $150–$155B of that total had already been realized.
According to Rakers’ analysis, Nvidia had implemented around 9 gigawatts of Blackwell infrastructure by the end of its fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs representing about 65–70% of that capacity. This translates to approximately $25B in revenue per gigawatt deployed.
While Rakers hasn’t officially increased his revenue forecasts yet, he indicated willingness to do so if deployment metrics continue exceeding current expectations.
