Key Takeaways
- Nvidia’s Q4 FY26 earnings release is scheduled for February 25, with analysts projecting revenue growth of 68% year-over-year, reaching $66.1 billion.
- Wedbush maintains its Buy rating with a $230 price target, while Truist keeps its Buy rating at $275.
- Wall Street’s overall sentiment remains Strong Buy — 32 Buy ratings versus one Sell — with analysts targeting $265.07 on average.
- Primary concerns include hyperscaler-developed chips and constraints in TSMC’s manufacturing capacity.
- NVDA shares have risen only 2.7% in 2026 following a 40%+ surge in 2025.
As Nvidia prepares to unveil its Q4 FY26 financial results on February 25, Wall Street analysts are anticipating another robust performance from the chipmaker.
The Street is looking for adjusted earnings per share of $1.54, representing more than 70% growth compared to last year’s $0.89. Revenue projections point to $66.1 billion — marking a 68% increase from the year-ago period.
The chipmaker has consistently surpassed revenue estimates for 13 consecutive quarters.
Matt Bryson from Wedbush Securities maintained his Buy recommendation with a $230 price objective, suggesting approximately 20% potential appreciation. He anticipates Nvidia will exceed consensus estimates and provide guidance above market expectations, citing robust demand for AI accelerators and a dependable supply chain as competitive strengths.
Truist Securities maintains its Buy stance with a $275 price objective. The firm projects Q4 revenue at $66.07 billion with earnings per share of $1.53. Looking ahead to Q1 FY27, the consensus anticipates $72.7 billion in revenue, representing 60% year-over-year expansion.
Major cloud service providers continue expanding their AI infrastructure budgets, and book-to-bill metrics are showing improvement throughout the industry, according to Truist’s assessment.
Competitive Threats and Manufacturing Constraints
However, the outlook contains some challenges. Major cloud providers are increasingly developing proprietary chip designs, creating long-term competitive pressure for Nvidia’s dominant market share.
Reports indicate Google is discussing potential supply arrangements with Meta — currently among Nvidia’s largest clients — for its internally developed TPU processors. AMD is also preparing to introduce a new high-performance AI server platform later this year.
Regarding production capacity, TSMC’s 3-nanometer manufacturing capability represents a significant constraint. Nvidia faces competition from rivals for the same limited fabrication slots.
“We believe Nvidia will hit expectations, but it is challenging to envision significant upside given TSMC capacity limitations,” noted Jay Goldberg from Seaport Research Partners.
China Market and Positive Catalysts
One area offering potential upside: the Chinese market. CEO Jensen Huang indicated last month his optimism about restarting H200 chip shipments to China, with an export authorization reportedly nearing completion. AMD has already secured approvals to deliver modified processors to China, establishing a potential framework.
Nvidia also finalized an agreement last week to provide millions of chips to Meta, though specific financial details remain undisclosed. The company reportedly holds a $20 billion chip licensing arrangement with Groq, designed to reinforce its position in the inference computing segment.
NVDA shares have climbed just 2.7% in 2026, significantly trailing the 40%-plus advance recorded in 2025. Market sentiment has been dampened by concerns about ASIC competition, data center financing questions, and the DeepSeek concerns that emerged earlier this year.
Wall Street’s average price objective stands at $265.07 — suggesting approximately 39% upside potential. The consensus recommendation is Strong Buy, reflecting 32 Buy ratings against one Sell rating.
Wedbush’s Bryson also highlighted Nvidia’s GTC developer conference scheduled for March as an important potential catalyst for share price momentum.
