Key Takeaways
- Nvidia’s Q4 FY26 earnings release on February 25 comes with analyst projections of $66.1 billion revenue, representing 68% year-over-year growth.
- Wedbush maintains its Buy rating with a $230 target, highlighting Nvidia’s “dominant share position” and robust AI chip demand.
- The Street consensus shows Strong Buy with a $265.07 average target — representing approximately 39% potential upside.
- Challenges ahead include hyperscaler custom chip development, TSMC manufacturing bottlenecks, and possible AI investment deceleration.
- Shares of NVDA have risen only ~2% year-to-date in 2026, following a stellar 40%+ gain in 2025.
The chip giant prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 performance on February 25, with investor attention at peak levels.
The Street projects adjusted EPS of $1.54, marking more than 70% growth compared to the prior-year period’s $0.89. Revenues are anticipated to climb 68% year-over-year, reaching $66.1 billion.
Matt Bryson from Wedbush Securities has maintained his Buy recommendation heading into the earnings release, setting a $230 price objective that suggests approximately 20% appreciation potential.
Bryson highlighted that Nvidia’s dependable supply chain infrastructure provides significant competitive advantages, leading him to anticipate both an earnings beat and above-consensus forward guidance.
His analysis points to 66% revenue expansion year-over-year for the complete fiscal 2026 period, with the Data Center segment alone projected to deliver close to $191 billion. This division posted 142% year-over-year growth to reach $115.2 billion during FY25.
Truist Securities has similarly reaffirmed its Buy stance with a $275 price objective. The firm anticipates Q4 sales of $66.07 billion alongside EPS of $1.53, matching consensus forecasts.
Truist notes continued momentum in AI infrastructure demand, with hyperscale cloud operators regularly adjusting their capital expenditure plans upward. Book-to-bill metrics across the industry are showing positive trends.
Looking to Q1 FY27, Wall Street anticipates $72.7 billion in revenue — a 60% year-over-year increase.
Competitive Landscape Intensifying
The outlook isn’t uniformly optimistic. Cloud service giants are progressively developing proprietary AI accelerators, creating potential long-term challenges to Nvidia’s market leadership.
Google has become a significant competitor, with reports indicating discussions to provide Meta — among Nvidia’s top customers — with its proprietary TPU processors. AMD is preparing to launch a new high-end AI server platform later this year.
Nvidia secured an arrangement reportedly valued at $20 billion to license chip architecture from Groq, which industry watchers believe reinforces its positioning in AI inference applications.
Recently, Nvidia also finalized an agreement to deliver millions of processors to Meta, though financial details remain undisclosed.
Manufacturing Capacity and China Strategy
The primary growth limitation may stem from production rather than market appetite. Nvidia and competing chipmakers are vying for access to TSMC’s advanced 3-nanometer production facilities, potentially restricting delivery timelines.
“We think Nvidia will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity,” wrote Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners.
A possible growth catalyst exists with China. CEO Jensen Huang indicated last month his expectation to restart H200 chip sales in that market, with export authorization reportedly nearing completion. AMD has already secured permits to ship modified processors to Chinese customers.
NVDA shares have advanced only 2.7% in 2026 thus far, representing a significant deceleration following the more than 40% surge during 2025. Market sentiment has faced pressure from concerns about ASIC competition, data center financing questions, and the DeepSeek uncertainty from earlier this year.
Wall Street’s overall stance remains Strong Buy — featuring 32 Buy ratings against just one Sell recommendation. The consensus price target stands at $265.07, suggesting approximately 39% upside potential.
