Key Highlights
- Shares of Nio increased approximately 4% in Hong Kong trading on February 22 following the Lunar New Year break.
- A new single-day battery swap record of 177,627 was achieved on the sixth day of the Chinese New Year celebration.
- The EV manufacturer surpassed 100 million total battery swaps on February 6 and maintains 3,750 stations nationwide.
- Fourth quarter 2025 vehicle deliveries reached a new high of 124,807 units, representing a ~72% year-over-year increase.
- The company projected its inaugural adjusted operating profit for Q4 2025, ranging from 700M to 1.2B yuan.
Shares of Nio (NIO) advanced approximately 4% during Monday’s Hong Kong trading session following the Chinese EV manufacturer’s return from the Lunar New Year holiday, buoyed by impressive battery swap performance metrics.
The most striking achievement: a single-day record of 177,627 battery swaps completed on Sunday. Throughout February, Nio shattered its daily swap record on six separate occasions, including an unprecedented five consecutive days of record-breaking performance during the Spring Festival travel period spanning February 15 through February 23.
The company currently operates a network of 3,750 battery swap facilities throughout China, with 1,022 strategically positioned along expressways spanning 550 cities. The 100 million cumulative swap milestone was reached on February 6. CEO William Li has publicly stated that achieving profitability in the power business remains a key strategic objective.
Over an 11-year period, Nio has committed more than 18 billion yuan toward building out its charging and battery swap infrastructure. The company’s 2026 roadmap includes deploying an additional 1,000 stations and initiating large-scale construction of its fifth-generation swap technology.
Historic Profitability Guidance
Vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025 totaled 124,807 units — representing a quarterly record with approximately 72% year-over-year growth across the company’s three brands: Nio, Onvo, and Firefly.
Deliveries in January reached 27,182 vehicles, marking a 96.1% year-over-year surge but declining 43.5% sequentially from December figures.
Significantly, the company issued guidance for its maiden adjusted operating profit in Q4 2025, with projections ranging from 700M to 1.2B yuan — a dramatic turnaround from the adjusted operating loss of 5.54B yuan recorded in the prior-year quarter. Under GAAP accounting, operating profit is anticipated between 200M and 700M yuan.
Management attributed the improved performance to increased delivery volumes, enhanced product mix optimization, and successful cost reduction initiatives. Third quarter 2025 revenue climbed 17% to reach 21.79B yuan, though results fell short of Wall Street expectations.
Near-Term Challenges
The company has cautioned that Q1 2026 performance may face pressure as government vehicle purchase tax incentives expire — a headwind expected to impact the broader industry.
JPMorgan revised its Nio price target downward to $7 from $8 earlier this month while maintaining an Overweight rating. The investment bank cited concerns about potential negative passenger vehicle growth in the Chinese market and margin compression throughout 2026.
According to China Passenger Car Association figures, wholesale sales of passenger new energy vehicles reached approximately 900,000 units in January — representing modest 1% year-over-year growth but a sharp 42% decline from December levels.
Notably, quantitative hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. has emerged as Nio’s largest institutional shareholder, signaling increased institutional confidence in the company’s infrastructure-focused strategy.
