Contents
TLDR
- Nio completed initial right-hand-drive vehicle shipments to Singapore with plans to enter Great Britain and Thailand during 2026
- Firefly sub-brand delivered 5,912 vehicles in October while total company deliveries increased 92.6% compared to prior year
- Third-quarter earnings report drops November 25 with Wall Street forecasting revenue of $3.12 billion and $0.22 per share loss
- Goldman Sachs analyst moved break-even projection to 2028 from 2029 and increased price target to $7 from $4.30
- Stock currently trades at $5.58 with six Buy ratings, six Hold ratings, and one Sell rating from analysts
Nio is making its international ambitions clear with a fresh push into right-hand-drive markets. The company sent its first batch of these vehicles to Singapore and has two more countries lined up.
Great Britain and Thailand are next on the list for 2026. The strategy focuses on regions where Chinese EVs don’t face steep import taxes.
The timing comes as Nio’s delivery numbers climb higher. Last month brought a 92.6% jump versus October 2024. Through the first ten months of this year, deliveries are running 42% ahead of last year’s pace.
The Firefly brand is central to this global play. Nio built Firefly to compete in the compact car space, which captures 17% of annual vehicle sales worldwide. About a third of those compact car buyers are in Europe.
Firefly’s Early Performance
Firefly delivered 5,912 vehicles last month. That represents just 14% of Nio’s total October volume, pointing to significant expansion runway.
Nio factored European buyer preferences into Firefly’s digital dashboard design. Tariffs pushed prices higher in Europe, but the models remain cost-competitive against local alternatives.
The broader export strategy helps Nio address two problems. First, China’s domestic EV market is brutal right now with price cuts hammering profit margins. Second, the Chinese auto industry is dealing with excess manufacturing capacity.
Chinese automakers shipped roughly 1 million vehicles overseas when this decade started. That figure is tracking toward 7.5 million for 2025.
Earnings Day Approaches
Nio releases third-quarter numbers before the market opens on Tuesday. Analysts are modeling for a $0.22 per share loss compared to the $0.30 loss from Q3 2024. Revenue estimates land at $3.12 billion against $2.6 billion in the year-ago period.
The stock sits at $5.58 after climbing 28% year-to-date. Options pricing indicates traders expect around a 12.7% move following the earnings announcement.
Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou adjusted her outlook on the stock. She lifted her price target to $7 from $4.30 but kept her rating at neutral. Her revenue forecasts for 2026 through 2030 increased by 6% to 11%.
Hou now projects Nio will hit break-even in 2028, pulling that timeline forward by a year. She also raised her gross margin expectations by 2% to 3% based on improved manufacturing scale. The analyst pointed to better execution on recent models like the L90 and ES8.
What’s Next for Nio
The company has three more vehicle launches queued up for next year. The L80 and ES9 are new additions while the ES7 gets a refresh. Success with these models would extend the current delivery momentum.
The right-hand-drive expansion also positions Nio for a potential U.S. market entry down the road. High tariffs currently block that path, but Ford CEO Jim Farley has already flagged Chinese EV makers as an “existential threat” to American auto companies.
Analyst consensus sits at Moderate Buy based on six Buy ratings, six Hold ratings, and one Sell rating. The average price target of $6.90 represents 23.66% potential upside from current levels.
The company remains unprofitable while operating in a capital-intensive sector with fierce competition both domestically and internationally.
