TLDR
- Shares of Micron have declined 15% since reaching a record closing price of $437.80 on February 2
- Citi upgraded its price objective to $430 from $385 while reaffirming its Buy recommendation before the March 18 earnings release
- Susquehanna increased its price target to $525 from $345 and maintained its Positive stance
- Citi projects DRAM pricing will surge 171% year-over-year in 2026 driven by robust data center demand
- Reports suggest SK Hynix and Samsung secured exclusive HBM4 supply agreements for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin accelerator, with Micron currently excluded
Shares of Micron moved higher on Monday, advancing 0.5% to close at $372.29, as the market digested positive analyst commentary alongside news that Korean competitors secured an important Nvidia supply agreement.
The memory chip manufacturer has experienced volatility recently. Shares dropped 6.7% last Friday and shed another 0.9% on Thursday, putting the stock 15% below its record closing level of $437.80 achieved on February 2.
Market participants are now focused on the company’s upcoming second-quarter financial results scheduled for March 18.
On Monday, two major investment firms published revised price objectives. Citi maintained its Buy recommendation while increasing its target from $385 to $430. Meanwhile, Susquehanna kept its Positive rating intact and made a more substantial adjustment, raising its target from $345 to $525.
According to Citi’s Atif Malik, accelerating memory pricing represents the primary catalyst. His analysis now anticipates DRAM average selling prices climbing 171% year-over-year in 2026, propelled by vigorous data center appetite. NAND pricing is similarly projected to jump 127% year-over-year due to strong eSSD consumption.
“Our supply chain discussions and analysis point to majority of the 2026 hyperscale capex revision to be driven by higher memory costs,” Malik wrote in his note.
Malik also referenced reports indicating Samsung is implementing 100% quarter-over-quarter DRAM price increases during the first quarter.
Citi’s research team acknowledged an ongoing investor discussion about whether the present memory expansion cycle mirrors the prolonged growth period witnessed during the 1990s Windows PC explosion. They maintain confidence that Micron stock can sustain its appreciation through 2026, although they cautioned that relative outperformance may moderate in Q2 following substantial Q1 gains.
SK Hynix and Samsung Grab Nvidia HBM4 Deal
Korean news outlets reported over the weekend that SK Hynix and Samsung emerged as exclusive HBM4 memory providers for Nvidia’s forthcoming Vera Rubin accelerator platform. Barron’s indicated it contacted all three companies seeking verification.
The disclosure initially sparked questions regarding Micron’s standing in the high-bandwidth memory sector.
However, independent technology analyst Richard Windsor from Radio Free Mobile challenged the pessimistic interpretation. He anticipates Micron joining as a supplier during the latter half of 2026 as production volumes increase.
“Furthermore, I do not expect that Micron will suffer a loss of revenues, as everyone is fully booked out for 2026,” Windsor wrote. He emphasized that any manufacturing capacity initially designated for Nvidia would find alternative buyers.
What to Watch at Earnings
Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini suggested memory market supply and demand dynamics could reach equilibrium around mid-2027 as additional manufacturing capacity becomes operational.
He noted that increasingly complex AI processing requirements may sustain elevated memory consumption even as profit margins face compression at that juncture.
Examining the previous three memory demand cycles dating back to the 1990s, Citi observed that Micron shares have typically reached peak valuations two to four months ahead of DRAM price peaks. Given expectations for continued DRAM price appreciation throughout 2026, Citi believes the stock has further upside potential.
Micron is set to announce second-quarter financial results on March 18.
