Key Takeaways
- Federal Reserve convenes Wednesday with rates anticipated to remain at 3.5%–3.75%, focus shifts to Powell’s commentary
- Crude surpassed $100/barrel following Iran conflict blocking critical Strait of Hormuz passage
- Micron delivers quarterly results Wednesday following a remarkable 300%+ stock surge over 12 months
- Major earnings from FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and other retail giants scheduled throughout the week
- Goldman Sachs projects $93/barrel average for Q4 oil if Strait blockade persists beyond 60 days
Equity markets registered their third consecutive weekly decline as escalating tensions in Iran drove crude prices to heights unseen since 2022’s energy shock. The S&P 500 slid 1.6% over five trading sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 2%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3%.
Investors now face a consequential week featuring a Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement, multiple high-profile earnings releases, and Nvidia’s flagship developer conference.
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest interest rate deliberation. With the benchmark rate currently positioned at 3.5% to 3.75%, market participants anticipate virtually no change to the policy stance.
Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-decision press briefing may carry greater significance than the rate announcement itself.
Powell faces questions about emerging splits within the Fed’s leadership. One faction advocates additional rate reductions citing employment market weakness. Another group expresses concern about petroleum-fueled inflation pressures intensifying.
This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Crude Prices and the Hormuz Chokepoint
The Iranian military conflict enters its third week with hostilities continuing. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile channel transporting approximately 14 million barrels daily — remains effectively closed to tanker traffic.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared it won’t permit “a liter of oil” through the strategic waterway.
Crude briefly breached the $100 per barrel threshold last Sunday, marking the first triple-digit pricing since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. After retreating into the $80 range, prices surged again following drone attacks on critical petroleum facilities and Gulf nation production curtailments.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that sustained Strait closure through 60 days would push fourth quarter Brent crude to $93 per barrel on average. US West Texas Intermediate would reach $89.
February’s Producer Price Index data arrives Wednesday as well. The prior month’s reading revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.
Micron and Corporate Reporting Calendar
Micron Technology unveils quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have soared over 300% across the trailing twelve months, propelled by artificial intelligence infrastructure demand. Micron’s previous quarter delivered 60% revenue growth year-over-year while surpassing Wall Street profit projections.
FedEx announces earnings Thursday. The logistics giant’s shares have climbed approximately 25% year-to-date. Analysts scrutinize FedEx’s package volumes as an economic barometer.
Dollar Tree’s results will provide insight into American consumer spending patterns. Management previously characterized shoppers as financially “stretched.”
Nuclear power provider Oklo releases results Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to deliver electricity for data center operations.
Alibaba reports Thursday alongside announcements about expanded AI infrastructure investments. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng publishes results Friday.
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference launches Monday featuring a keynote address from CEO Jensen Huang.
