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Market Outlook: Iran Conflict, Employment Numbers, and Tech Earnings Take Center Stage

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TLDR

  • Weekend military operations by the U.S. and Israel targeting Iran have introduced fresh geopolitical risk into financial markets
  • Major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow declined through last week; Bitcoin retreated near $66,000 as gold advanced to $2,596
  • February employment data releases Friday; prior month revealed 130,000 job additions, exceeding analyst expectations by more than 100%
  • Significant corporate reports scheduled include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Costco, and Target
  • Apple launches new product announcements Monday, with major event anticipated Wednesday

Equity markets ended last week in negative territory as artificial intelligence and entertainment sector names produced volatile swings. The S&P 500 registered losses for the trading day, week, and the entire month of February.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The Nasdaq 100 similarly declined, while the Dow Jones surrendered 1.05%. Treasury yields on the 10-year note retreated to 3.95%.

Bitcoin descended toward the $66,000 level by the close of trading. Gold appreciated to $2,596 per ounce and crude oil advanced to $67.29 per barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

During the weekend, coordinated military operations between the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets. President Trump issued statements encouraging Iranian citizens to challenge their leadership, prompting Iranian counterstrikes against Israeli and Gulf region targets.

Crude oil prices had already been climbing throughout the week on Middle East concerns. Additional escalation in hostilities could drive energy prices higher and create ripple effects across energy, airline, and defense industry equities.

Jobs Report in Focus

February’s employment situation report is scheduled for Friday release. Last month’s January figures revealed employers expanded payrolls by 130,000 positions, substantially surpassing economist projections.

Source: Forex Factory

That same release, however, included downward adjustments to previous months, indicating early 2025 job growth was softer than initially calculated. The Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark rate range at 3.5% to 3.75% while market participants seek evidence of labor market deceleration.

Unemployment is projected to remain around 4.4%. A softer-than-anticipated reading could revive speculation about potential rate reductions in March or May.

The postponed January retail sales figures also arrive Friday. December’s data revealed consumer spending essentially flatlined at year-end, with sluggish employment growth identified as a contributing element.

Earnings Season Continues

Broadcom delivers results Wednesday with analyst consensus anticipating approximately $19.22 billion in quarterly revenue. During December guidance, management indicated AI-focused revenue would experience 100% growth in the period.

CrowdStrike presents Tuesday’s report. Software sector equities have faced headwinds from concerns regarding AI-driven disruption, although certain analysts view artificial intelligence as an expansion catalyst for cybersecurity providers.

Marvell Technology follows with Thursday’s announcement. Market observers will scrutinize AI semiconductor demand following Nvidia’s exceptional quarter that generated $68.1 billion in Q4 revenue.

Target presents results Tuesday under recently appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, who assumed leadership last month. Target equity has rebounded during the current year following challenging 2025 performance.

Costco likewise reports Thursday. The retailer’s shares have demonstrated improvement in 2026 after a difficult prior year.

Netflix equity surged 13.82% last week following Warner Bros. Discovery accepting a $31-per-share proposal from Paramount Skydance over Netflix’s competing bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer and withdrew from consideration.

Apple is anticipated to unveil new hardware beginning Monday, potentially including the iPhone 17 and an affordably-priced MacBook. A dedicated special event is confirmed for Wednesday.

The Fed’s Beige Book publishes Wednesday in advance of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting.

Marvell Technology’s earnings announcement is scheduled for Thursday, March 5.