Key Takeaways
- IonQ stock surged 21.7% on Thursday after the company announced impressive Q4 earnings and bullish 2026 forecasts
- Full-year 2025 revenue reached $130 million, with projections for 2026 set between $225 million and $245 million
- Company executives compared IonQ’s growth trajectory to Nvidia’s early expansion phase
- A 256-qubit quantum computing system is planned for fourth quarter 2026, alongside the ongoing SkyWater Technology acquisition
- Analyst opinions vary widely: Rosenblatt keeps $100 target while DA Davidson cuts to $35
IonQ posted fourth-quarter revenue of $61.9 million, pushing its full 2025 fiscal year revenue to $130 million. These figures surpassed Wall Street expectations, driving shares to finish Thursday’s session at $40.88 — marking a robust 21.7% daily increase.
Trading volume hit 66.4 million shares, far exceeding the typical three-month average. Such significant volume movements generally signal institutional investor involvement rather than purely retail-driven trading.
For 2026, executives provided revenue projections ranging from $225 million to $245 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi described 2025 as representing “a strategic and financial inflection point” for the quantum computing company.
CFO Inder Singh emphasized that commercial customers accounted for over 60% of 2025 revenue, with international business contributing more than 30%. The company concluded the year holding $3.3 billion in cash and investments.
In post-results discussions, de Masi drew comparisons to Nvidia‘s early-stage growth. He pointed out that Nvidia once reported $60 million in quarterly sales — comparable to IonQ’s present scale. “There’s room for us to go a long way,” he remarked.
He also acknowledged IBM as the dominant competitive presence. “There’s two ecosystems — there’s IBM and there’s the rest of us,” de Masi observed. Gartner designated IBM last year as “the quantum computing company to beat.”
Next-Generation Qubit Systems and SkyWater Deal
IonQ plans to launch a 256-qubit production system in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company also revealed the implementation of quantum-secured communication infrastructure across Romania’s National Quantum Communication Infrastructure — featuring 36 connections covering over 1,500 kilometers.
The company has pursued several strategic acquisitions lately, incorporating expertise in atomic clock systems, quantum sensing hardware, and semiconductor manufacturing. The proposed SkyWater Technology purchase would provide vertical integration of chip production — a move many analysts consider strategically sound.
Some market observers remain skeptical, questioning whether aggressive expansion before achieving profitability creates unwarranted execution risks. IonQ has yet to report positive full-year earnings.
Wall Street Reactions
Analyst reactions to the earnings report varied significantly. Rosenblatt’s John McPeake reaffirmed his buy rating with a $100 price target. DA Davidson’s Alexander Platt maintained a neutral position while lowering his target to $35. Needham’s Quinn Bolton revised his forecast down to $65.
This disparity reflects the fundamental debate: growth-focused investors embrace the company’s expansion strategy, while concerns about cash burn rates and integration complexities from deals like SkyWater keep others on the sidelines.
Over the past twelve months, IonQ shares have gained 66%, substantially outpacing the Nasdaq Composite’s 23% increase. Competitor D-Wave has soared nearly 270% in the same timeframe, while Rigetti has advanced approximately 120%.
After his company’s latest quarterly report, D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz cautioned investors to expect “unpredictable revenue patterns” in upcoming quarters. Rosenblatt described his company’s most recent quarter as “uneventful,” although bookings showed strength despite a 27% year-over-year decrease.
IonQ executives will attend the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, followed by an appearance at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference on March 11.
